At The Valley, the home side's profile is the tightest thing in this match: five home league games, six goals in total, and never more than three in one game. Norwich arrive with an attack that has shrunk badly since Mo Toure's injury. In Gaziantep, a home side without a finished squad meets a deep Fenerbahce team still sore from losing its opener to the champions. Both matches turn on a weakness that has shown up in recent content, not on names.
Charlton under Nathan Jones sit in a back three with wing-backs and a compact block. At home they held QPR to 0-0 with 28% of the ball and Portsmouth to 0-0, and they have conceded twice in five home games. All of their open scorelines came away from home, against better sides who attacked them. A draw suits them here, so they will not chase.
Norwich's last three games produced 0.61, 1.07 and 0.29 expected goals, with no goal in the last two. Toure was their only runner beyond the last line, and he is out until January. Their number tens now have to break down two holding midfielders in Skipp and Coventry, possibly with Chalobah back. Charlton's own route is limited too: Mesik's crosses from the left and set pieces give them a moment or two, not a steady flow. Both sides were quiet before half-time in recent games, so the most likely picture is a cagey first half, with any goal coming from a set piece, a penalty or one late transition. That's why I'm on a low-scoring game at The Valley.
In Gaziantep, coach Ali Bağcı said on the eve of the match that players are missing and that several foreign transfers are still not done. That squad state has already produced a 0-3 at Altekma and a 1-3 home loss to promoted Onikisubat this month. Fenerbahce's 0-3 to Ziraat came in three narrow sets against the league's best servers, which is a different test.
Anderson and Lagumdzija's serve against a reception line missing its foreign outside hitters is where sets should open up. Fener's own new pieces, with the setter link in only its second official match, could cost them a slow set, but Gaziantep do not have the outlets to keep it up across two. That's why I'm siding with Fenerbahce to win comfortably on the road.
