Burnley's attack looks like two different teams depending on the venue. Away from home, when the opponent has the ball, they break quickly and create real chances. At Turf Moor, when they have to carry the ball against a set defence, the chances dry up and they have not held a lead. Charlton arrive with an away plan built on handing over the ball, which pushes Burnley straight into their weaker mode.
The split is clear in the numbers. Away at Wrexham, Swansea and Watford, with less than half the ball, Burnley produced between 1.5 and 1.8 expected goals and scored three times in the first 25 minutes at Watford. At home against Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Derby, with more of the ball, they produced 0.64, 0.26 and 0.45. They scored roughly once in each of those games and then leaked late: Bristol City turned 1-0 into 1-2 at 82' and in stoppage time, and Derby equalised in the 93rd minute.
Charlton have gone very deep on the road, with 29% of the ball at West Brom, 37% at Stoke and 38% at Cardiff. Coventry and Skipp screen in front of Jones and Koumetio, and when a passing side tried to break that shape down, it held well: West Brom managed little on 71% of the ball. Their own attack is thin away from home and comes from a few moments. Leaburn holds the ball up, while Campbell and Grant run in behind against centre-backs who have struggled to close games out.
On team news, Burnley's long-term absentees were not in the side that won at Watford, so they change little. The fresh question is Amdouni, who went off with an ankle problem at Watford and has scored in three of their last five, and Alleyne also came off late. For Charlton, Sichenje is out, but Koumetio played the full game at the weekend and Jones partners him. Both sides are on a three-day turnaround, and strong wind is forecast, which makes patient build-up harder for the side holding the ball.
The danger window for Charlton is the first half hour, when Burnley come out with energy after their first win under Hayen. If it is still level around the half-hour, the game should settle into Burnley passing in front of a deep block, with growing anxiety in a stadium that has not seen a home win in a year. The common states here are 0-0, 1-1, or a narrow Burnley lead that has to survive the closing stages.
The price is built on Burnley's Premier League names and the win at Watford. My read is built on how Burnley actually play when they are the ones forced to break a deep team down, and on Charlton being exactly that kind of opponent. That's why I'm siding with Charlton not to lose this one.
