Buriram against Kashima looks like a long, patient match rather than an open one. Kashima will have most of the ball, but they arrive after a hard overnight trip with a partly rotated squad. Buriram are likely to defend deep in a back five under a new coach. Neither attack has shown, in this competition, that it can produce a lot against this kind of setup.
The key fact is how little Buriram create on their own. In three Champions League Elite games their expected goals have been 0.49, 1.00 and 0.67, which means one goal is roughly their limit. For this match to get to three goals, Kashima would need to score three themselves, or the game would need to finish 2-1.
Kashima's only comparable game, away in South-East Asia, gave them ten shots, one on target and a 1-0 win through an own goal. Against Pohang's back five the first half finished goalless and all three of their goals came after the 69th minute. When Kashima need an hour to break a deep block, there isn't much time left for a high score.
The club itself called the trip via Bangkok very tough, and the coaching staff talked about making do with the players who travelled. Kashima also play away at FC Tokyo three days later. Pressing and runs in behind are what tired legs lose first, and those are the very things that broke Pohang. Kashima are also without centre-back Kim Tae-hyeon, but the replacement pair kept Pohang to zero shots on target.
Buriram's goalkeeper Etheridge made six saves at Gamba and seven at Johor in this competition, both times behind a deep block. Buriram's real threat is a set piece through centre-back Mancha or a counter for Bissoli. That's a route to one goal, not to an exchange of goals.
I expect a quiet first half with Kashima keeping the ball without getting through. Any goal is more likely after the hour, when Kashima's substitutes come on. Buriram's three games in this competition produced two, one and two goals, and Kashima's only away game produced one. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring match.
