Brooklyn's 0-2 start looks worse on paper than it was on the floor. Both losses were close, they came with the full rotation, and one of them was on the road in Cleveland. This match should turn on possessions. Brooklyn take the ball away a lot, and Indiana's second unit has just lost the player who organises it.
Indiana's half-court runs through Haliburton and Nembhard, with Siakam scoring and Zubac on the glass. Their problem so far has been the start of games: they were outscored by 44 points across their two first halves, and the second quarter has been the leak both times. Brooklyn live on Randle and Porter creating and on heavy three-point volume. They give the ball away too, but they also force it: Charlotte and Cleveland each committed 20 or more turnovers against them.
The key matchup is Brooklyn's pressure against Indiana's bench handling. McConnell is out, and so are Sheppard and Furphy, three guard roles gone with the backup initiator the big one. That leaves Quenton Jackson and the wings to bring the ball up when the starters rest, which is exactly the stretch where Indiana have bled. In the other direction, Indiana force only around 14 turnovers a game, so Brooklyn's loose handling meets a much smaller threat.
Brooklyn are on the second night of a back-to-back and rest the rookie Mikel Brown Jr. That costs them some bench creation, but it also takes a turnover-prone young guard out of the rotation. Nesmith is probable for Indiana and played on his last outing.
I expect Indiana to start sharp after Carlisle's public criticism. The second quarter is where it should tighten, with Indiana's thin bench facing Brooklyn's hands, and Randle and Porter can carry it from there. For Indiana to pull clear, they need to win one of the middle quarters clearly, and that is the window they have lost so far. That's why I'm siding with Brooklyn to keep this one close at home.
