Two matches where the fine print of who is missing and who is tired matters more than the table. One is an open game between two sides with thinned back lines; the other is a playoff elimination game decided by bullpens rather than starters.
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC: both teams have been playing high-event football, around three and a half goals a game each over their last ten. Brisbane creates about five shots on target per game at home, and Auckland gives up more than four per game while playing as a counter side with only 44 percent of the ball. Auckland are without Calver and Howieson in a defence and midfield that were already stretched, and Brisbane are missing the defender Valkanis, who also sat out the last match. Brisbane's last outing was a 2-1 win with six shots on target to one; Auckland's was a 5-2 loss after a 3-1 win. Auckland counter into the space Brisbane leave, Brisbane keep pushing at a leaky back line, and that is why I expect goals at both ends here.
KIA Tigers vs Samsung Lions: Game 4 of the playoff series at Gwangju, with Samsung leading two games to one and KIA facing elimination. No KIA starter has gone deep in this series, so this is decided by relievers. Naile has a 3.24 ERA against Samsung across four starts and arrives with a fresh arm after only 57 pitches in Game 1; Fedde has a 5.25 ERA against KIA and gave up five runs in Game 1. Samsung's main relievers have thrown in two and three straight games and their manager is unsure they can go again, while KIA has a rested Yang Hyeon-jong available as a long man and the closer lightly used. With the home side forced to use every arm, I'm siding with KIA to win, and a result only needs five completed innings if the weather interferes.
