This match puts a rebuilt Brisbane side that wants the ball against an Auckland team that, under its new coach, has so far played almost entirely without it. Auckland's way out of pressure has been long balls towards one big target man, and that player is suspended. That leaves the champions leaning on corners and late breaks, while Brisbane's press on the goalkeeper's restarts gets a much softer target. The champions' name and their past wins at this ground count for less than how these two sides actually play right now.
Brisbane opened their season at home to Perth in a 3-5-2 and ran the game: 57% of the ball, 14 shots to 7, six on target to one. They build patiently through Aldred, King and Maieroni, with Nam Tae-hee as the creative hub, and they press the keeper and centre-backs. Their opening goal came straight from cutting out the goalkeeper's pass.
Auckland, two games into the Pedro Moreira era, had 42% of the ball in their 3-1 home win over Melbourne City and 38% in the 5-2 defeat at Western Sydney. Both goals at Western Sydney came from corners, and Moreira said himself that open play is something they must improve.
The key duel is Brisbane's press against Auckland's escape route. Woud's long distribution at Western Sydney went mostly towards Sam Cosgrove, who won six aerial duels in his 90 minutes. With Cosgrove suspended, those clearances have no proven target and should keep coming back to Brisbane's midfield. Nam against Gallegos and Brimmer is the next battle, and Auckland are still without Howieson in that zone.
Auckland's best weapon is their rehearsed corner routines with Vicelich, Pijnaker and Sakai, aimed at an 18-year-old keeper behind a new back three. Brisbane's only goal conceded came from a back-line mistake under pressure, so Bayliss and Brook on the break are a real threat too.
I expect Brisbane to have the ball and the territory, with Auckland sitting in a disciplined block after the five they shipped last week. The first goal is more likely to come from a regain, a long-range effort or a set piece than from long spells of open play, and a draw is a real possibility between two careful sides.
That's why I'm siding with Brisbane Roar at home, on a pick that also covers the draw. Auckland lose the player their direct game is built around, their open play was already thin, and Brisbane's press and possession are aimed exactly at that weakness.
