Botafogo against Vasco is a Rio derby between a team that keeps making chances without being rewarded and a team whose last league result was a 5-0 that probably says less than it looks. Both come in after roughly 18 days without a league game, and Vasco will be without the man who set up and scored in that 5-0. What I'd watch is whether Botafogo's habit of falling behind early meets a Vasco side that has lost its link player.
Botafogo first, from our match records. In their last league defeat, away at Mirassol, they had xG 1.35 to 1.22 and 12 shots each, yet lost 0-2, with both goals from Eduardo, in the 16th minute and in first-half stoppage time. Before that they out-shot Bragantino 21 to 14 with 64% of the ball (xG 1.39 to 0.80) and drew 1-1, after Bragantino's goal came off a Botafogo own goal in the 30th minute and Bragantino then played the rest of the game with ten men. Against Palmeiras it went the other way: 0-0 with 33% of the ball for Botafogo. So the story is not "can't create", it is that the games tend to tilt through one early or odd goal.
Vasco's 5-0 over Coritiba was lopsided in every number: 32 shots to 4, xG 4.02 to 0.22, 65% possession. But the next question is who is available. Andrés Gómez, who assisted Bruno Duarte's goal and scored the fourth, is listed as suspended for cards. Brenner is out with a knee injury, and Carlos Cuesta is listed as a doubt. Coritiba are also not much of a yardstick for a derby.
Common opponents give a rough cross-check, with a caveat that home and away are mixed. Gremio: Vasco won 2-1 away after trailing 0-1 at the break, scoring in the 76th and 80th minutes (xG 1.52 to 0.68). Botafogo beat Gremio 3-2 at home after being level 1-1 at the break. Fluminense: Vasco lost 0-1 away, Botafogo drew 1-1 at home. Palmeiras: Vasco lost 1-4 away, Botafogo drew 0-0 at home.
Recent derbies lean Botafogo (they won 1-2 away at Vasco this April and 3-0 at home last November, and Vasco won the Carioca game 2-0 in February). Still, I wouldn't lean on that as much as on the shape of the game: if Botafogo can avoid conceding the first goal, their chance volume looks like it should matter, and Vasco without Gómez has to find a different way to get forward.
Sources: our match records and the squad data for both teams (Serie A fixtures, availability list).
