Two matches with a lot of open space at the back. Both sides in each game are short of defenders, and the chance counts lean clearly one way in one game and toward goals in the other.
In Leverkusen against Stuttgart, the home side creates far more than it allows: about twenty shots a game against ten, and 2.6 expected goals for against 1.3 against. Stuttgart are without three defenders, Zagadou, Vagnoman and Diehl, and they give up around sixteen shots a game. Leverkusen have been missing their forwards for weeks and still produced 25 and 33 shots in their last two games, and they have scored 15 in five home matches. Stuttgart's way in is a counter or a set piece, as Hoffenheim showed, but the size of the chance gap is bigger than that route. That's why I'm siding with Leverkusen to win.
In Bologna against Monza, Monza play an open game: eight of their last ten went past two and a half goals, and they concede about fourteen shots a game. With two defenders out, that back line is thinner still. Bologna just won 4-2 at Milan on 2.09 expected goals with little possession, and they are a transition side that likes space. Bologna also miss Holm and De Silvestri at the back, so Monza's six shots on target a game will find room. The first goal should pull the other side forward. That's why I'm on the goals in this one.
