Two European matches where the defensive weakness is clear. Hoffenheim keep losing the same way: lots of the ball, few clean chances, then goals conceded on the break and late. In Istanbul, a Palace side that keeps failing on dead balls meets a Besiktas high line that direct runners have repeatedly got behind.
Hoffenheim against Lyon. Under Ilzer, Hoffenheim lost to Paderborn with 66% possession, to Hamburg after conceding at the 83rd minute and in stoppage time, and to Besiktas after a goalless first half and nearly three expected goals against in the second. They have conceded 23 in ten. Lyon are a physical transition side, and Ilzer himself calls their breaks extremely dangerous. Fonseca is rotating for PSG, with Openda and Sulc out, and Hoffenheim will aim their left-side combinations and corners at a makeshift Lyon back line. But the way Hoffenheim concede does not depend on the opponent, and Lyon's coach protects a level or winning score. That's why I'm siding with Lyon not to lose.
Besiktas against Crystal Palace. Besiktas win territory and corners at home, and Palace concede through set-piece clearances and midfield turnovers. Lyon and Brighton both scored from dead balls, and Palace now play with backup keeper Benitez and no Timber beside Wharton. At the other end, Pino, Sarr and Strand Larsen run at a Besiktas line that Amedspor and Trabzonspor got behind. Disasi and Chilwell return to steady Palace's back three, and Besiktas are tired without Kokcu, but both sides have a clear way to score, and both have scored most of their goals after the hour. That's why I'm siding with goals in Istanbul.
