Banfield look better than their table position and their form line suggest. Their last league game ended 2-2 even though they had 23 shots and 3.54 xG against 0.44, and they missed a penalty on the way. Rosario Central lead Group B, but they arrive short of several regulars, and that gap in squad depth is where my judgement turns.
Banfield are winless in their last five and have conceded 16 goals in 10 league games, so the run is real. Still, the chance numbers I could read point the other way: in two other matches they also created about 2 xG, and one of those ended in a 0-2 home loss. A side that keeps getting into those positions tends to see the results catch up with the chances.
Rosario Central sit on 18 points with only 8 goals conceded, and Di Maria and Copetti can decide a game on their own. But the match preview lists Pizarro and Campaz as away on national-team duty, Sandez suspended and Alan Rodriguez injured, with Ledesma returning in goal after missing the last two matches. They also won the Supercopa nine days ago, and their league results lately have been narrow, 1-0 wins and draws rather than comfortable ones.
Banfield have had a long gap since their last league game and a coach who needs a result. The slip attached shows exactly what I took.
