This group decider comes down to one side having to chase and the other trying to hang on. Aruba top the group and a draw is enough for them, so Antigua and Barbuda have to come at them on home soil. What tips it for me is how the two sides handled the same opponent, and the very different weeks they've had going into this one.
Both teams played Anguilla twice. Antigua beat them 5-0 at home, all five goals before half-time, and then 3-0 away with 43 shots to Anguilla's none on target. Aruba won 2-0 away, but in the home game they trailed 1-2 until two goals in stoppage time rescued a 3-2 win, even with 30 shots and most of the ball.
That 3-2 came just two days before this match, and Aruba then had to travel. Two of their attackers, Molina and Gijsbertha, went off injured just after the hour. Molina is the one who scored the only goal in the first meeting. Antigua have had five days at home since their last game.
That first meeting finished 1-0 to Aruba, but it was in Aruba and the goal came in the 90th minute. It wasn't a game Aruba controlled. This time the venue is reversed, the rest is reversed, and the team that has to push is the one that has been creating far more chances lately.
