The rematch turns on a change in Antigua and Barbuda's attack. Aruba needed a stoppage-time header to settle their first meeting, and its goalkeeper had already made several important saves. Since then, Kayonte George and D'Andre Bishop have started together and combined for two goals in a match Antigua controlled. That partnership, alongside the extra recovery time, gives this meeting a different shape.
George and Bishop both came off the bench in the first meeting. Against Anguilla, George set up both of Bishop's goals as Antigua produced 43 shots, including 19 from inside the box. The heavy score was against a weaker opponent, but the connection between the two players is more useful here than the score alone.
Aruba made 30 shots against Anguilla in its latest match yet conceded twice and had to score twice in stoppage time to win. Antigua kept Anguilla out in both meetings and has had a longer break before this rematch. Concacaf has staged the group at the same stadium throughout, so the home label itself does not explain the change I see.
