Two B.League games where the headline numbers tell less than the possession count. The Kanagawa derby pits Kawasaki's size against a Yokohama side that leaks on the boards and at the foul line, while Kawasaki's turnover problem meets an opponent that rarely forces it. Alvark against Brex has first place facing seventh, yet Alvark's recent margin rests heavily on a very weak opponent and one huge free-throw night. Both games should turn on who gets the extra shots rather than on who has the better record.
Kawasaki Brave Thunders vs Yokohama. Under new head coach Oketani, Kawasaki win through size and second chances, with Kirk, LeDee and Bonds leading the crash. They lose by giving the ball away and allowing a lot of threes. Yokohama are ball-secure and perimeter-based, built on Namizato's passing and the shooting of Livers, Bell and Arai.
The main matchup is Kirk, LeDee and Bonds against Kotsar and Richardson. Yokohama have one true big, and they lost the boards to Shinshu twice, Sendai, Hokkaido, Akita and Hiroshima. They also conceded 17 or more free-throw attempts in eight of nine boxes, and LeDee drew 10 and 11 in two recent games. Kawasaki's 20-turnover games came against sides with 10 or 11 steals, while Yokohama average about six and had four in their last game, so that leak should stay moderate.
On the lineups, Kirk, LeDee and Bonds all played the last game, as did Livers and Arai. McGusty and King have no line in Yokohama's recent boxes and no return notice. Expect a Kawasaki lead at half built on boards and inside shots, then a sag after half that Yokohama share, with their fourth-quarter scoring the late push. Yokohama have made 13 or more threes only once in ten games, and without that kind of night their volume does not beat the possession count. That's why I'm siding with Kawasaki to win this by more than a single possession.
Alvark vs Utsunomiya Brex. Alvark win through individual scoring: Johnson averages about 26, with Hogg and Jarreau behind him, and they sit near the top of the league in points but 15th in assists. Brex run through Kell as creator and Fotu inside, crash the offensive glass hard and shoot poorly from three. Alvark are the better side and I expect them to lead through the middle of the game, especially in the third quarter, Brex's slowest.
The size of that lead is the question. Over the last five games the big wins came at Saga and against Akita, where the free throws ran 30 attempts to 10. The three home games in that stretch produced only a narrow average margin, with just one clear win. Brex's offensive boards, 15 and 12 in their last two, also press on the exact leak Alvark's coach Richman named after the Ibaraki loss, and he went smaller in the fourth quarter against Mikawa for mobility. Brex's turnover problem needed a forcing side like Nagoya D to show up in full, and Alvark forced only 8 to 12 in their last five league games.
Toews has no line in Alvark's box scores since 10 October and Olbrich is on the injury list, which leaves Rossiter as the main big with Hiraiwa behind him. Brex have posted no injury notice, though Edwards's minutes dipped in their last game.
I expect an Alvark win in the middle-to-high single digits, with a late Brex response through threes and second chances. That's why I'm siding with Brex to stay close, not to win outright.
