Two B.League Sunday games where I think the market has read the recent results too literally. In Tokyo it is a possessions team at home against a shooting team on the road. In Saga it is a short-handed home side against a Chiba team that rarely pulls away from anyone. In both games the pressure is on the team that has to win by a margin, not just win.
Alvark vs San-en. Alvark have built their season at home on ball security and the glass. They average about eight turnovers in home league games, they won or tied the boards against Brex twice and Akita, and they got to the line 30 or more times in their rested home wins. San-en are 7-2, but every one of those games was on the road and most of the wins came against the weaker half of the league, by two to four points: Kobe, Shinshu, Saga. Against good opponents on the road they were about even. They also lost the glass in four of their eight boxes, including 30-44 at Hiroshima and 35-48 at Kobe.
The obvious knock on Alvark is the schedule. They played in Taiwan for the EASL, then lost badly at Sendai, while San-en come in after a full week off. That load is real, and Alvark faded late in both of those games. But the Sendai blowout was mostly about threes (8 of 33 for Alvark against 16 of 37 for Sendai), while the rebounding was level and the turnovers were close. Alvark had a day off at home before this one, which is not the same as the end of a road trip. Olbrich is still out and Toews missed the last game, so I'm reading the Sendai rotation (Hogg, Johnson, Rossiter, Jarreau, Ando, Baranski) as the group for this match. San-en are still without Yu.
I expect a close first half. If Rossiter, Johnson and Baranski win the glass and Alvark keep giving San-en only one shot per trip, this stays a coin-flip game at home, and I don't think the price leaves enough room for that. I'm siding with Alvark at home.
Saga vs Chiba. Saga are 1-12 and have lost seven straight, but most of that run came against the top of the league: Alvark, Mikawa and Kyoto. Their frontcourt has also changed. Olivier went from 16 minutes against Alvark to 27 minutes and 19 points at Mikawa, Xzavierro is back, and with that group they lost by only six at Mikawa. The big home losses to Alvark and Nagasaki came while Olivier was new and Xzavierro was out. Nassir Little, facing his former club, is the whole half-court engine.
Chiba get Randolph and Watanabe back, and Luke Maye is a real problem on the offensive glass. But their defence leaks: 92 or more allowed in most games, 100 to Toyama and 102 to Kyoto, and they lost the boards to Altiri at home. Kanechika and Costello did not play in the last game. Chiba also arrive two days after an overtime game in which Watanabe played 37 minutes. Over their last 20 games they have won by double digits only twice.
Chiba should lead for long stretches through size and three-point volume, but their late quarters have not been safe, and Saga's low-turnover attack should get to a normal scoring night against this defence. I'm siding with Saga to keep this within reach at home.
