Twente can combine compact spells with direct releases toward their forward line. Monza and Atalanta offer a more open contest over aggressive pressure and the pass beyond it. Both matches turn on the receiver after the first duel, rather than possession totals alone.
Twente's Taha–Ørjasæter connection worked at AZ, while their attack against PSV also reached Weghorst behind the defence. Those routes meet Ajax's recent difficulty protecting the next receiver at equal numbers. Drommel is established cover during Unnerstall's absence, and Twente report no new injuries from Europe. Ajax have Bissouma available domestically, adding a real midfield option. I expect alternating initiative with Twente able to create from their compact phases. That's why I'm siding with Twente, with a level finish returning that selection.
Monza have completed Robinson's cross to Varela and used Mota and Zeballos to advance quickly. Atalanta retain De Ketelaere's close combinations with Krstovic and the wide receivers, against a Monza defence recently exposed in open play and at corners. Birindelli is absent, while Monza's returning Pessina and Ziolkowski add squad options; Kessie and Kolasinac are reported Atalanta bench returns. De Ketelaere and Krstovic had reduced European minutes. I expect pressure to draw out defenders and create further receiving spaces as the match develops. That's why I'm expecting goals in Monza against Atalanta.
