Two very different matches share one idea: the content each side shows against like opponents matters more than the names. In Jeddah, the home side's recent chance volume and home record meet a visiting team that gives away heavy volume to good opponents. In the Azores, the league's tightest defensive block meets a title chaser that has piled up numbers mainly against weaker or open sides. One match is about a gap in level, the other about a block that rarely gives way.
Al Ahli under Pusic hold the ball and turn it into chances. They made between roughly two and four expected goals in each of their last three league games and allowed very little, and at home they have won eight of their last nine. Much of that output comes after half-time, so a slow first half fits the picture.
Al-Gharafa play reactively against good teams and break through Brahimi and Ounas. They usually score, but they concede a lot: 25 shots and 13 corners at home to Al Ahli Doha, and no away win in eight. Bennacer, the passer who links their counters, is reported suspended. Al Ahli's centre-back pair already played together in the last league win, so their back line isn't new on the day.
Al-Gharafa have no points from two games, so they can't sit in a low block for ninety minutes. Once they come out, Al Ahli's second-half volume should do the rest. That's why I'm siding with Al Ahli to win at home.
Santa Clara under Petit have the best defence in Portugal, and it isn't luck. In seven league games with stats they never conceded more than about one expected goal, and they kept Braga to half that in a goalless draw here. Even when they chase a game, their second halves stay closed.
Benfica make big numbers against mid and lower blocks and in Europe. Their one away trip to a top-half block, at Porto, produced little. They also arrive from Cyprus for a fourth game in about two weeks, without the runners Barreiro and Barrenechea, on a pitch their own coach called difficult in this weather. Santa Clara lose Dje Tavares, their box-to-box goal threat, to suspension.
I expect Benfica to have the ball and Santa Clara to defend deep and counter behind the high full-backs, with few clear chances either way. The last three meetings were all tight and low-scoring. That's why I'm siding with the low-scoring side of this match.
