Al Ahli and Al-Gharafa bring different ways to create a clean finish. Al Ahli can build through Toney and Trincão, while Gharafa can answer through Brahimi and Ounas. Santa Clara–Benfica is shaped by sustained Benfica pressure against a compact home defence. The decisive question there is whether the first clearance becomes another Benfica chance.
Al Ahli's recent box chances have come from Toney's central finishing, Trincão's right-side delivery, midfield arrivals and restarts. Gharafa created plenty against Esteghlal but also gave Al Ahli Doha repeated shots after taking a lead. That makes both the first pass out of Gharafa's defence and its next defensive clearance central to this match.
Demiral missed Al Ahli's latest league game and is reported out again, leaving the recent Bakor–Ibañez partnership to face Brahimi and Ounas. Bennacer played Gharafa's latest league match but is reported suspended for this competition; Gharafa still made chances without him against Esteghlal. If Al Ahli's repeated entries meet a Gharafa reply, Toney and the midfield runners have separate finishing routes. That's why I'm siding with a high-scoring Al Ahli–Gharafa match.
Santa Clara held Braga to very few clean chances at home and have repeatedly kept opponents' first shots difficult. Benfica can press high through Prestianni and Dahl, then recover the first clearance for Pavlidis or a midfield runner. Santa Clara's back line has the job of ending that second possession, while Lucas Soares and Vinícius Lopes can release into the space behind Benfica's advanced line.
Djé Tavares is suspended after his Mafra dismissal, so Santa Clara's midfield balance shifts toward either Vasconcelos' forward running or Borges' defensive work. Benfica's travelling squad includes Pavlidis after he scored against Omonia, while Durán returns with less recent playing time. Santa Clara have had longer to recover than Benfica after the Cyprus trip. Their compact defending gives them a route to keep the match close even while Benfica control more of the ball, so I'm siding with Santa Clara to stay within reach.
