[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Levante vs Atlético Madrid: Match Preview Kick-off: October 31, 13:00 UTC
Levante have attacked with intent at home, but they have also left space behind their defence for opponents who play through the press. Atlético Madrid’s recent wins have often been shaped by second-half substitutions.
1. Match overview and team form
Levante sit 14th on 10 points, two clear of 18th place in the relegation zone. Coach Luis Castro has indicated he will make changes to the starting XI from the Real Sociedad match (Infobae, October 30). Local reports have predicted either a setup with three wide forwards or one with Petar Ratkov alongside Iván Romero (Atletimedia, October 30; Actualidad Valencia, October 30). Either way, Levante are likely to keep showing the attacking intent they have displayed at home.
The 2-1 defeat to Real Sociedad showed both the reward and the risk of that approach. Nacho Pérez finished after Thiago Fernández sent the ball in from the left. Levante’s first goal conceded, however, came after the opposition played through the press, sent a pass behind the defence and delivered a low cross (El Gol Digital, October 25). Levante have scored 13 and conceded 10 in four home league matches this season. Their opponents have had plenty of chances too, so their defensive response when they lose the ball will matter today.
Enzo Bardeli is out injured. Oriol Rey and Daniel Requena are expected to start in midfield. Requena has made runs into the box, so another midfielder will need to cover behind him when he pushes forward. The coach says Dela has recovered, though local reports suggest he is unlikely to start (Plaza Deportiva; Actualidad Valencia, October 30).
Atlético Madrid are on a six-match league winning run, but each of their last three wins came by a single goal. Coach Diego Simeone changed his attacking setup with second-half substitutions against Deportivo La Coruña and RCD Espanyol, and those changes led to goals. With Koke and Johnny Cardoso unavailable, more of the work in building from the back falls to Pablo Barrios (Plaza Deportiva, October 30). Levante did not play in the Copa and have had five days off since their last league match. Atlético have six days between games, but must also manage their schedule ahead of two tough matches next week. Simeone spoke directly about managing his players’ workload and the importance of substitutions (COPE, October 30).
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is Levante’s high press against Atlético Madrid’s first pass. If Levante win the ball in the opposition’s defensive third, Roger Brugué and Thiago Fernández can finish attacks from close range. Brugué’s goal against Athletic Club also came from an opposition mistake while playing out from the back. Atlético lost the ball in their own half under pressure through Marc Pubill against VfB Stuttgart, and they did not manage a shot on target in the first half against Deportivo La Coruña. With Koke and Cardoso missing today, the build-up that gets the ball to Barrios becomes even more important.
Once Atlético play through the press, the situation is reversed. Levante allowed a pass in behind their defence against Real Sociedad. If Atlético get past the first press with a long ball or a quick forward pass, Julián Álvarez and Jonathan David can attack that space. The timing of Nacho Pérez’s forward runs on Levante’s left will also matter. His runs into the box offer a route to goal, but if Giuliano Simeone attacks the space he leaves behind, Levante’s defenders will have to turn and run back toward their own goal.
Another key battle is Atlético Madrid’s attacks down the left against Levante’s box defending. Atlético have recently scored through Álvarez after Alejandro Grimaldo and Ademola Lookman sent low balls in from the left. To stop those deliveries, Levante’s defenders will need to track both the player crossing and the attacker arriving in the box. Even if Atlético’s connection is shut down in the first half, Simeone can turn to the second-half substitutions that have recently increased their attacking tempo. If Levante score first, Atlético may have to bring on their attacking options earlier, so Levante’s pressing in the first half could also shape how the second half is managed.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market makes Atlético Madrid strong favourites to win away, reflecting their six straight league wins and low number of goals conceded. We agree with that direction. Their last three wins were all close, though, and they will have to play through Levante’s press today. Atlético have a clear route to score through second-half substitutions and low balls from the left, but we do not expect them to create a lot of chances from the start.
Where we differ from the market is the winning margin. Levante have continued to commit players forward at home in the second half. Atlético face Bayern Munich and Barcelona next week, and Simeone has also spoken about the need to manage his players (COPE, October 30). If they go ahead in the second half, there will be reason to manage the game rather than keep their starting attackers on the pitch for another goal. This outlook would change if Levante score first with their pressing in the first half, forcing the away side to make substitutions earlier, or if Levante fall behind and leave themselves open to repeated counterattacks while pushing forward.
We expect Atlético Madrid to get through Levante’s attempts to disrupt their first pass and win by a single goal with changes to their attack in the second half. We expect the combined total to stay below four goals.
[Final picks · by market · Betman lines] Full-time result: Away win. Simeone’s second-half substitutions and low deliveries from the left offer a clearer route to exploit the space behind the press and Levante’s weakness in defending low crosses than Levante have to press Atlético’s first pass. Handicap +1: Draw. With Bayern Munich and Barcelona coming up, Atlético may ease off after taking the lead, while Levante have the means to keep committing players forward at home and cut the deficit to one goal. Over/under 3.5: Under. Atlético’s scoring is more likely to come in the second half, and absences in midfield could slow their build-up. We expect the total to stay below Betman’s line, which is one goal higher than the main offshore line.
