[2026–27 English League Cup] Everton vs Newcastle United preview and analysis Kick-off: 19:45 UTC on October 29
Everton and Newcastle United meet at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool on October 29 at 19:45 UTC, with a place in the English League Cup quarter-finals at stake. The sides meet again in the Premier League four days later. In this one-off tie, the starting line-ups and the options available from the bench will matter.
1. Match overview and team form
Everton sit 11th after 8 league matches, with 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats. Newcastle United are eighth with 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. As of October 27, Sports Mole put the gap between them at 1 point. Their league positions are close, but their recent form has taken different turns. Everton went unbeaten in 8 competitive matches after the season began, then lost 0-2 to Chelsea and Arsenal in back-to-back games. Newcastle United lost to Aston Villa and Coventry City before beating Crystal Palace 2-0 away.
League figures after 8 matches this season Goals scored and conceded: Everton 8 and 9 / Newcastle United 12 and 14 Expected goals and expected goals against: Everton 9.96 and 11.58 / Newcastle United 9.18 and 13.66
The Data Centre's league figures show Everton have conceded about 2.6 fewer goals than their expected goals against. There have been matches in which they have relied on saves to escape danger, such as Jordan Pickford stopping all 4 of Ipswich Town's shots on target. Newcastle United have had lower expected goals than their opponents in 7 of 8 league matches, but in their 3 wins they have turned limited chances into goals. Both of their shots on target against Crystal Palace found the net. These figures alone cannot settle how well either side will finish or defend today. Everton's back line is changing, and Newcastle United have conceded in different ways from match to match.
Everton's recent changes are most apparent in defence. Early in the season, Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski formed the central pairing, with natural full-backs on either side. When Vitaliy Mykolenko was absent against Hull City, Branthwaite moved to the left and Michael Keane came into the centre. Everton scored twice but also conceded twice in that match. Branthwaite entered concussion protocols against Chelsea, and Jake O'Brien started at centre-back in his place against Arsenal. Mykolenko was also substituted in the second half, leaving two midfielders to cover the full-back positions by the end. Everton conceded 3 goals in their first 7 matches, then 6 in their last 3. Chelsea and Arsenal were among the recent opponents, so the increase cannot be explained by defensive changes alone, but today's likely back line is clearly different from the one at the start of the season.
Thierno Barry is a major part of Everton's attack. He has scored 6 of their 13 goals in all competitions this season, including 3 in the League Cup match against Preston. Excluding that game, Everton have scored 3 goals in 9 matches. They have failed to score in consecutive games against Chelsea and Arsenal. Both opponents are near the top of the league, so those results do not automatically tell us how Everton will fare in front of goal against Newcastle United. Still, Barry is their only specialist centre-forward and their alternatives off the bench are limited, so it will be difficult to change the attack if he cannot make his chances count.
Newcastle United have had mixed results in their 5 away matches. They beat Tottenham Hotspur, Millwall and Crystal Palace without conceding, but lost 1-4 to both Leeds United and Coventry City. Against Coventry City, goalkeeper Lukáš Horníček conceded a penalty, and Newcastle also let in a goal after Joelinton lost the ball near his own penalty area. Against Crystal Palace, Jacob Murphy and Amar Dedić each supplied a right-wing cross that led to a goal. How many of the experienced players Matthias Jaissle used in that match he keeps in the side will be a factor for Newcastle's away defence.
The likely absences affect different areas for the two teams. Everton are uncertain to have Branthwaite and Mykolenko available, while Jack Grealish missed the Arsenal match through illness. If Mykolenko cannot play, James Garner, a natural central midfielder, is expected to fill in at left-back, with O'Brien at centre-back. Tyrique George could replace Grealish in the line ahead of them. Newcastle United are unsure about Matthias Fernández-Pardo and Lewis Miley, but have Yoane Wissa and William Osula up front, plus Jacob Ramsey and Joe Willock in midfield after their returns from injury. Anthony Elanga also returned against Crystal Palace.
Under David Moyes, Everton have used a disciplined 4-2-3-1 and kept clean sheets in all 4 of their wins this season. Matthias Jaissle's Newcastle United press high in a 4-4-2 that mixes man-marking when out of possession, then move forward quickly when they win the ball. The last 10 competitive meetings between these sides are evenly split from Everton's perspective, with 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. Newcastle United were managed by Eddie Howe in last season's meetings, and Branthwaite, who scored in Everton's 3-2 win in February, is a doubt today. Today's starting line-ups matter more than past results when assessing the tactical match-up.
Everton have had 5 days to recover since facing Arsenal, while Newcastle United have had 4 since playing Crystal Palace. Everton have had an extra day, but Yahoo Sports reported on October 26 that they had only 15 senior outfield players available. Both teams also have to face the same opponents in the league four days later. Everton have little room to rotate heavily, while Newcastle United's plans for changes are still unclear.
2. Match-up analysis
If Everton set up their defensive block first, Newcastle United will have to attack in a way they have struggled with. Jaissle said his team dominated against Aston Villa, but Newcastle had only 1 shot on target. Everton have shown at Tottenham Hotspur that they can limit an opponent's attack and hold on for a 0-0 draw. Moyes can ask Newcastle United to keep the ball and try to break down an organised defence.
For that approach to work, Everton's left side has to deal with Newcastle United's right-wing crosses. Against Crystal Palace, crosses from Murphy and Dedić on that side led to 2 goals. If Garner starts at left-back, he will face Murphy or Elanga, while George will also need to help defensively when Dedić pushes forward. Garner is expected to move inside during the build-up, but must return to his defensive position as soon as Everton lose the ball. If Newcastle United break quickly down the right in that moment, Everton will need to stop the cross before their defensive block is back in place. The terms of this duel would change if Mykolenko starts.
Everton's choices on the other flank matter too. Ainsley Maitland-Niles can push forward on the right and deliver crosses. In Everton's match against Hull City, Kieran Dewsbury-Hall headed in from one of his crosses. But if Maitland-Niles loses the ball high up the pitch, Newcastle United's Lewis Hall and Harvey Barnes can attack down the left. In Newcastle's match against Hull City, Hall won the ball and exchanged passes with Barnes before scoring. If Garner moves inside during the build-up and Maitland-Niles has pushed forward when Everton lose possession, Newcastle United can counter into the space left by the full-back.
In the middle, Newcastle United's press will meet Everton's attempts to play out from the back. O'Brien started at centre-back in place of Branthwaite against Arsenal, and Hayden Hackney, expected to play in midfield, had made 1 Premier League start as of October 26. If Newcastle United press this pairing high, Everton can send a long ball to Barry. He will need to compete with Malick Thiaw or Sven Botman and buy time for his teammates to move up. If Everton play through the first press or Tyler Dibling carries the ball past it, they can attack in front of Newcastle United's defence. Newcastle have also conceded after losing the ball in their own half, as they did against Coventry City.
Set pieces offer Everton a way to score from a limited number of chances. Dewsbury-Hall has been involved in corners and headers in the box, while Tarkowski and O'Brien can compete in the air. Newcastle United failed to stop an unmarked Johan Manzambi from heading home a cross against Aston Villa. If Branthwaite is absent, though, Everton lose the player who scored with a header from a corner in the February meeting, as well as an aerial presence for defending set pieces. Newcastle have Thiaw, Botman, Fabian Schär and Dan Burn. Thiaw's header from a corner in the first minute of Everton's home match last November showed how an early set piece can change the way a match unfolds.
If the first half ends goalless, the substitutions will matter. The Data Centre's competitive match figures this season show Everton have won only 1 of the 5 games in which they were level at half-time. Newcastle United have won all 4 such matches, though 2 came in cup ties against second-tier sides. Those records do not determine today's result, but Newcastle have options in Elanga, Ramsey and attackers left out of the starting line-up. Everton have fewer available players, and many of their starters will need to play again four days later. If Newcastle keep the defence that faced Crystal Palace and bring on attackers in the second half, they can continue targeting Everton's left side.
The outlook changes if Everton score first. They have won all 3 matches this season in which they led at half-time without conceding, while Newcastle United have failed to win any of the 4 matches in which they trailed at the break. If Newcastle push forward to chase the game, space will open up for Dibling and Barry. If Newcastle score first, Everton will have to commit more players forward in this one-off tie. Elanga and Barnes could then target the space behind Everton's advancing full-backs.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market gives Everton a slight edge on home advantage, the expected goals and expected goals against from their 8 league matches, and their clean sheets in cup matches. The possibility of absences among Everton's regular starters was already known. The difference in our assessment is where those absences fall. If Mykolenko and Branthwaite are missing, Everton will need replacements to defend the flank where Newcastle United have recently scored from right-wing crosses. They also have few options to change that position later in the match. That makes it difficult to apply the defensive record from the start of the season directly to today's likely starting line-up.
We expect Everton's defensive block to limit Newcastle United's forward movement in the first half, with few clear chances. From the start of the second half through the substitution window, we give Newcastle United a slight edge to take the lead, either by crossing toward Everton's left or winning the ball back with their press. Newcastle have players who can target that flank and options to bring on later, while Everton rely heavily on Barry and have fewer ways to chase the game. We expect Newcastle United to win a low-scoring, close match rather than a game with plenty of goals. We see little chance of Everton winning by a wide margin.
This forecast depends on Mykolenko missing the match and Newcastle United avoiding mistakes in their own half under pressure. If Mykolenko starts at left-back, we have more reason to expect Newcastle United's main attacking route to be blocked, raising the chance of a low-scoring draw. Everton could also take control after going ahead early from a corner, or after Newcastle make several changes to their starting line-up and lose the ball in their own half.
[Final verdict · by market · Betman betting lines] Full-time result: Away win. With Everton's likely absences concentrated on the left, midfielder Garner would have to deal with Newcastle's right-wing crosses. After the 60-minute mark, Newcastle can call on Elanga and Ramsey, while Everton have only 15 outfield players available. That difference tilts the decisive moment in the second half toward Newcastle, assuming Mykolenko is out. Handicap -1: Away win. With Grealish and Branthwaite missing and Barry as the lone centre-forward, Everton are not set up to extend their lead, especially as they tend to drop into a deeper block when ahead. Everton need their left side to hold firm even to win, so the draw and Newcastle win have stronger support. Over/under 2.5: Under. Everton's block and organised defence should limit Newcastle's shots as they try to dominate possession, leaving few first-half chances. Everton may be pushed into long balls by Newcastle's press, narrowing their attacking options and making it difficult for both teams to build up goals.
