[26-27 UCL UEFA Champions League] AS Roma vs Real Madrid Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 14, 19:00 UTC
AS Roma and Real Madrid meet at Stadio Olimpico in Rome for the second round of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase. It will be Roma’s first Champions League home match in seven years. The key question is how much the hosts’ man-oriented press can disrupt Real Madrid’s build-up, and how often Mbappé can receive the ball behind Roma’s defence once the visitors play through that pressure.
1. Match overview and team form
AS Roma opened the league phase with a 1-1 draw away to Fenerbahçe, while Real Madrid beat Internazionale Milano 2-1 at home. Roma are unbeaten in seven competitive matches this season, with four wins and three draws. Real Madrid have seven wins and two defeats from nine matches. The home and away records tell a different story: Roma have two wins and a draw in three home games, while Madrid have two wins and two defeats in four away matches. Those losses came away to Real Betis and Atlético Madrid.
Gasperini’s Roma are unbeaten in 14 straight competitive matches dating back to the end of last season. They have continued to press opponents high, follow their markers and attack quickly after winning the ball. But in their last three matches, against Fenerbahçe, Internazionale Milano and Como, their expected goals against were higher than their expected goals. They conceded only three goals across those games, though that does not mean they gave up few chances. Mile Svilar made key one-on-one saves against Fenerbahçe and Internazionale Milano, while stand-in Pierluigi Gollini made saves against Como.
Svilar will miss this match with a stress fracture in his foot. Gollini is expected to start, but his only appearance this season came against Como. He dealt well with shots including one from Nico Paz, though facing Real Madrid’s press on the goalkeeper and deciding how to play the first pass will be a different test. Captain Bryan Cristante is also out with a knee problem. He scored from distance against Fenerbahçe and contributed in the air. Marten de Roon is among the possible replacements and knows Gasperini’s man-oriented pressing system, but Manu Koné is more likely to take on the job of making runs into the box from midfield.
Key positions Goalkeeper: Roma are without Svilar, with Gollini expected to start. Courtois could be available for Real Madrid. Centre-back: Roma could add Koulierakis to their defensive options off the bench. Real Madrid have called up only three centre-backs: Huijsen, Konaté and Rüdiger. Attacking roles: With Cristante out, more of Roma’s runs into the box will fall to Koné. Real Madrid’s choice between Vinícius and Diomande for a starting place is another variable.
Real Madrid have scored 21 goals in nine matches this season. Mbappé leads the attack with eight goals and two assists in nine appearances, while Courtois made decisive saves against Internazionale Milano and Villarreal. Madrid did not control either match from start to finish. Against Inter, they scored twice after winning the ball in the opposition half, then allowed 20 shots. Villarreal’s press also disrupted their build-up and forced them to go long at times, with Courtois preserving a 1-0 lead. In both of their away defeats, Madrid went into half-time at 0-0 before conceding first in the second half.
Real Madrid’s absences are concentrated in defence. Éder Militão and Raúl Asencio are out, leaving only three centre-backs in the squad. If Huijsen and Konaté start, Rüdiger will be the only centre-back available from the bench. Ferland Mendy is not registered for the Champions League, so Marc Cucurella or Álvaro Fernandez could play at left-back. Vinícius, sent off against Villarreal, is available because his suspension applies only to La Liga.
Gasperini has said Roma will stick to their usual approach against Real Madrid. Mourinho said his side are prepared for Roma’s style. Both coaches know the other’s tactics, but old head-to-head results do not necessarily tell us much about the squads as they are now. Roma have lost their last four Champions League meetings with Real Madrid without scoring, but their last competitive meeting was in 2018. None of the players from that match remain at either club. The Olimpico will be sold out, and Real Madrid have had one extra day of rest. We will see how much that difference affects the intensity of the press.
2. Matchup analysis
Roma’s press will target Real Madrid’s first pass from the back. In Gasperini’s 3-4-2-1, the wing-backs move forward to follow the opposition full-backs, while centre-backs step high when the players they mark drop deep to receive the ball. In the first half against Inter, this approach disrupted their progress, won possession and helped create Koné’s goal. Roma also won the ball in the opposition half against Torino when Gianluca Mancini’s press led to a foul, and Paulo Dybala’s pass set up Donyell Malen to score. Real Madrid struggled to play short under Villarreal’s press, so Roma could win the ball close to the visitors’ box.
The risk is that Roma’s defenders may have to turn and run towards their own goal. When Villarreal shut down Real Madrid’s short build-up, Trent Alexander-Arnold’s long pass created a shooting chance for Mbappé. Valverde’s forward passes also set up goals against Elche and Villarreal. If Roma’s centre-backs step out to track their opponents and Madrid play over the press, Mbappé or the left-sided attacker could be left one-on-one with the remaining defenders. Mancini’s advance and loss of possession preceded Inter’s goal in the 46th minute of the second half, a reminder of that danger.
Real Madrid’s choice at right-back will also shape how they play through the press. If Alexander-Arnold starts, a long ball from deep to Mbappé is an option. Denzel Dumfries would bring strength in wide duels and in the air, but there is less reason to expect him to deliver the same kind of long pass as Alexander-Arnold. Even if Roma win the ball, a turnover far from goal may not lead to a scoring chance. If Madrid use long passes to bypass the first press, Roma will have fewer chances to recover possession near the opposition box.
For Roma, a key question is whether Malen can get in behind Real Madrid’s defence. He has six goals in seven Serie A and Champions League appearances this season, but has not scored in his last four matches. His runs have been harder to turn into finishes when opponents have limited the space behind their defence. If Real Madrid push their line up to press Gollini’s passes, Malen could find that space. Huijsen conceded a penalty and was sent off against Atlético Madrid while trying to stop an opponent running in behind. If Madrid defend deeper and keep their shape, Malen may have to wait for another route to goal, as he has in recent matches.
Roma can then look to the wings and Koné’s runs into the box. Their opener against Inter came from a link-up with wing-back Nahuel Molina and Koné’s finish. For the second goal, Koné scored from Paulo Dybala’s cross. Opponents have found space behind Real Madrid’s left-back this season. Madrid’s response will depend on how much Roma’s left-sided attacker tracks back when the right wing-back advances, and whether Aurélien Tchouaméni follows Koné into the box. With Cristante out, more of Roma’s attacking responsibility falls on Koné, so Madrid may make that movement a priority to stop.
The goalkeeping matchup is not the same at both ends. Even if Roma get into the box as they did against Inter, Courtois can still stop their shots. His saves also influenced the result when Gasperini’s Atalanta BC faced Real Madrid. At the other end, Gollini will need to carry his good performance against Como into one-on-ones with Mbappé and situations where Real Madrid press high. He may be capable of doing that, but one appearance this season is a limited basis for judging him.
The second half could be decisive. Roma have conceded three of their four goals this season between the 46th and 48th minutes. The goals came in different ways, so we cannot pin them on a single defensive issue. Against Inter, Roma led 2-0 at half-time but conceded soon after the restart, then made a series of defensive substitutions as the game wore on. Mourinho made changes at the start of the second half and again in the 52nd minute against Villarreal, adjusting the shape before Real Madrid scored the winner in the 62nd minute. Roma could have Koulierakis back in training as another defensive option. Madrid have fewer centre-back options on the bench, which could make it harder to deal with Malen or Roma’s substitute forwards continuing to run in behind late in the game.
Neither side can assume a lead will be safe. Roma let a two-goal advantage slip against Inter, and Real Madrid were pegged back after going 2-0 up against Elche before scoring again in stoppage time. Madrid also scored twice first against Inter but allowed the opposition plenty of shots. Roma have Hermoso and Mancini as threats from set pieces, along with attacking options off the bench. If Roma push forward in search of an equaliser, Real Madrid can counter with Mbappé and Vinícius or Diomande. How the teams manage a lead could matter as much as who scores first.
3. Verdict and prediction
We favour a Real Madrid win. Roma can press high at home, disrupt the first pass and create chances for Dybala, Malen and Koné. But when Madrid play through that pressure, Mbappé can find himself one-on-one with a defender. Real Madrid also have an advantage with Gollini replacing Svilar, and Roma’s record of conceding soon after half-time this season is another point in the visitors’ favour. If Mourinho adjusts the attacking routes at the break, Roma’s defence could face even more situations where they have to run back towards their own goal.
We expect a 2-3 or 1-3 scoreline. Roma could win the ball high and create chances in the first half, but we expect Real Madrid to exploit the space behind the press and Mbappé’s one-on-ones to take the lead after the break. If Roma push forward while trailing, a Madrid counter could stretch the margin to two goals. If Real Madrid slow the game down after going ahead, Roma may pull one back from a set piece or through a substitute, making 2-3 the likelier score. If Roma cannot find that goal, it could end 1-3.
The market has Real Madrid as favourites, reflecting their stronger squad and Roma’s key absences. We agree with the expected direction of the result, but we see more potential for goals than a view based on the low scores in recent matches would suggest. Gollini will need to deal with chances Svilar stopped against strong opponents, and both teams have let leads slip recently. The main factor that could change this outlook is Roma’s centre-backs dealing with Real Madrid’s long passes before Mbappé gets there. If they do that consistently, Madrid will have fewer one-on-one chances and the scoring pattern we expect may not develop.
