[2026-27 AFC Champions League] Cong An Hanoi vs Kashima Antlers: Preview and analysis Kick-off: October 13, 12:15 UTC
Cong An Hanoi host Kashima Antlers at Hang Day Stadium on October 13 in the second matchday of the AFC Champions League Elite league stage. Cong An Hanoi need points in their first home game after a 1-4 opening defeat, while Kashima Antlers travel away for the first time in this competition after opening with a 7-1 win. The teams have never met in an official match.
1. Match overview and team form
The opening scores point strongly to Kashima Antlers. They beat Newcastle Jets 7-1, with Aleksandar Čavrić scoring a first-half hat-trick. Cong An Hanoi pulled one goal back after falling 0-3 behind away to Gamba Osaka. The competition standings in the data centre also have Kashima Antlers first and Cong An Hanoi 15th. Still, Kashima Antlers had an expected goals figure of 1.85 against Newcastle Jets, while Cong An Hanoi managed 15 shots and 1.47 xG against Gamba Osaka. Two opening results alone do not tell us what the goal difference will be today.
| Category | Details | |---|---| | Competition opener | Cong An Hanoi lost 1-4 away to Gamba Osaka; Kashima Antlers won 7-1 at home against Newcastle Jets | | Domestic league | Cong An Hanoi: 3 wins from 3 in the V.League; Kashima Antlers: sixth in J1 with 16 points | | Most recent match | Cong An Hanoi won 1-0 away to Lion City Sailors; Kashima Antlers beat Gamba Osaka 2-0 at home | | Next match | Cong An Hanoi host Hanoi FC on October 18; Kashima Antlers host V-Varen Nagasaki on October 17 |
The two teams also had very different results against Gamba Osaka, and the performances differed too. Cong An Hanoi created chances, including a long-range effort from Bryan Perea that struck the crossbar around the 25th minute. But after conceding in the 29th minute, they struggled against Gamba Osaka’s press. In the second half, gaps opened in their defence and they conceded from a header following a cross from the right. They also lost the ball in front of their own box and conceded again. Kashima Antlers beat Gamba Osaka 2-0 on October 9, but the data centre recorded 1.71 expected goals against, higher than their 1.24 xG. Gamba Osaka hit the crossbar, and Tomoki Hayakawa made a late save. That is why we should not judge Cong An Hanoi’s attack only by the 1-4 scoreline or consider Kashima Antlers’ defence secure based only on a 2-0 win.
Cong An Hanoi were V.League champions last season and have won all three league matches this season. Away to Lion City Sailors recently, their opponents created more chances in the first half, but Leo Artur finished a counterattack in first-half stoppage time for a 1-0 win. They also beat Adelaide United 2-0 away in August after ceding possession, with David Henen and Bryan Perea linking up on runs in behind. Cong An Hanoi went unbeaten at home in their three AFC Champions League Two matches last season, with 2 wins and a draw. That record shows they can hold their ground and counter at home, though those were last season’s matches and do not confirm how well they will defend today.
Kashima Antlers won the J1 title in 2025, but their away matches this season have brought as many goals conceded as goals scored. They have scored 12 and conceded 12 in five J1 away games, with a clean sheet only against Tokyo Verdy. Away to Kawasaki Frontale, they led through a Leo Ceara header despite trailing 5-15 in first-half shots, then conceded an equaliser in stoppage time for a 3-3 draw. Their recent win over Gamba Osaka ended a run of three straight J1 defeats, but evidence that they can limit opponents’ chances away from home remains thin. In attack, Leo Ceara has scored 11 of Kashima Antlers’ 19 J1 goals this season, while Čavrić has 4. Ceara’s finishing inside the box and Čavrić’s runs in behind give opposing defences different problems.
The starting line-ups will depend on the managers’ choices. Cong An Hanoi are expected to switch from the 3-4-3 they used against Gamba Osaka to a 4-3-3, with Doan Van Hau, Frans Putros, Kevin Pham Ba and Jason Quang Vinh Pendant in defence. Le Van Do and Le Pham Thanh Long in midfield could provide more crosses and set pieces. Nguyen Dinh Bac took part in training the day before the match after a muscle contusion, but his availability depends on how he feels. There have also been reports of fitness concerns for Nguyen Quang Hai. If either player has a limited role, Cong An Hanoi may have less speed on the counter and fewer long passes in the second half, though Henen and Perea will still offer attacking options.
Toru Oniki’s usual shape is a 4-4-2. He left Leo Ceara and Yuma Suzuki out of the starting line-up in the opening match, starting Čavrić and Homare Tokuda up front instead. The team sheet will show whether Oniki sticks with the line-up that beat Gamba Osaka or rotates his forwards with the league match on October 17 in mind. Injured Koki Anzai and Yuta Higuchi have been absent since July, with Ryoya Ogawa, Kento Misao and Gaku Shibasaki among those who have filled in. Their absence is not a new setback for today’s match.
The schedule and weather could affect how both teams manage the second half. Cong An Hanoi play their away match in Singapore on October 8 and return to action five days later. Kashima Antlers have four days between their home match on October 9 and this trip abroad. Open-Meteo’s forecast around kick-off for the Hang Day Stadium area is about 27°C with humidity of 84 to 85%. We will see how long Kashima Antlers can sustain their high press in that humidity. Toru Oniki has said his team will not play passively, and Alexandre Polking has also said he wants his side to play with intensity and earn points in their first home match.
2. Match-up analysis
The most direct contest could be Kashima Antlers’ attack down the right against Cong An Hanoi’s left side of defence. Kashima Antlers scored against Gamba Osaka when Rikuto Hirose crossed from the right and Leo Ceara headed in. Against Kawasaki Frontale, crosses from Yuta Matsumura and Čavrić also led to a Ceara goal. Cong An Hanoi failed to stop a centre from the right being headed in by the central forward against Gamba Osaka. If Jason Quang Vinh Pendant pushes forward as expected and Cong An Hanoi lose the ball, Hirose and Matsumura could have space to prepare crosses behind him.
Cong An Hanoi can respond by asking Le Pham Thanh Long to help defend Pendant’s side or by managing when Pendant moves forward. But if Le Pham Thanh Long has to defend more often, Cong An Hanoi will have fewer crosses into the far side of the box. Cong An Hanoi can also score from wide areas. Against Truong Tuoi Dong Nai, Alan Grafite headed in a cross from Le Pham Thanh Long. Against The Cong Viettel, Stefan Mauk finished a set-piece cross from Le Van Do with a header. Those two goals came against Vietnamese sides. Against a Japanese side, their opportunity against Gamba Osaka came when Alan Grafite met a cross from Frans Putros with a header.
In midfield, the area where possession is lost will matter. Cong An Hanoi lost the ball in front of their own penalty area against Gamba Osaka and conceded. Kashima Antlers won more duels and second balls in their recent match against Gamba Osaka, then moved the ball quickly wide or in behind after regaining possession. They also showed how Gaku Shibasaki can drop deep to play long passes while Kento Misao blocks central passing lanes. If Cong An Hanoi’s midfield gives Shibasaki time on the ball or loses possession in its own half, the back four will have to deal with crosses and runs in behind in quick succession. On the other hand, if Stefan Mauk can play forward past Misao’s press, Henen and Perea can launch a counter.
That counter could target Kashima Antlers’ weakness away from home. Against Kawasaki Frontale, Kashima Antlers gave up a one-on-one chance from a pass in behind, and they also allowed space behind their defensive line against Mito HollyHock. Henen has scored against Adelaide United after receiving a through ball from Perea and beating a defender. If Kashima Antlers press high to win the ball back, Cong An Hanoi face a greater risk of losing possession in their own half, but space can open up for a pass to Henen if they play through the press. Nguyen Quang Hai’s availability and fitness could change Cong An Hanoi’s options for long passes in those situations. Even if his role is limited, Mauk and Perea can still link up.
Cong An Hanoi’s set pieces offer another route back into the match. Le Van Do and Le Pham Thanh Long are both expected to start, and Mauk and Alan Grafite have scored headers. Kashima Antlers have conceded after failing to deal with the second phase of set pieces against Urawa Reds and Vissel Kobe, and they also failed to clear the ball after a corner late against Ventforet Kofu. If Cong An Hanoi switch to the expected back four after the Gamba Osaka match, they will have fewer central defenders available to deal with Kashima Antlers’ crosses, but their own set-piece threat will remain. Both teams can target the situations that have led to the other side conceding.
The match could change significantly depending on who scores first and when the managers make substitutions. If Kashima Antlers take the lead, Cong An Hanoi will need to push forward for points. If that opens up the defensive gaps we saw against Gamba Osaka, Oniki could bring on attackers such as Čavrić or Tokuda to chase another goal. If Cong An Hanoi hold on for a draw at half-time or take the lead from a set piece, Kashima Antlers will have to keep pressing in the humidity while also protecting the space behind their defence. Oniki has previously changed the shape of a match by making several substitutions together. For Polking, the question at that stage will be how fit Nguyen Dinh Bac is, given the speed he has added in the second half.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We make Kashima Antlers the more likely winners. If Cong An Hanoi line up with a back four, Kashima Antlers can target Leo Ceara in the air with crosses from the right. Cong An Hanoi’s goal conceded after losing possession in their own half against Gamba Osaka also points to a possible weakness against Kashima Antlers’ high press and ball recovery. Oniki has options to change his forwards in the second half and maintain the pressure and runs in behind. Cong An Hanoi still have counterattacks and set pieces as routes to goal, but we expect Kashima Antlers to create more attacking chances through crosses and turnovers in the opposition half.
The likeliest scenario is Kashima Antlers taking the lead with a cross or a turnover in the opposition half, then Cong An Hanoi pulling one back from a set piece. Our predicted score is 1-2, with the home team listed first. A 1-3 result is also possible if Kashima Antlers score first around the 30-minute mark and Cong An Hanoi chase the game, leaving gaps at the back. The market leans towards a bigger Kashima Antlers win, partly on the strength of the opening match’s wide scoreline. Odds have also moved amid reports about Cong An Hanoi players’ fitness, though we cannot say which news prompted the change. The fitness concerns mainly affect the speed of counters and long passes. Cong An Hanoi still have set pieces supplied by Le Van Do and Le Pham Thanh Long, and Kashima Antlers remain vulnerable to conceding after set pieces. If Cong An Hanoi use one of those chances to take the lead, protect the space behind Jason Quang Vinh Pendant and reduce losses of possession in front of their own box, our view of the likely winner could change.
