The key contest is whether Oviedo can keep their first pass out of defence alive against Eibar's front pressure. Oviedo retain creative service through Goti, but their receiving structure has changed since Ramos's injury. Eibar's wide delivery and midfield arrivals give them several ways to turn recovered possession into a dangerous attack.
Goti created chances against Gijón and continued supplying the attack at Eldense. Eibar bring a different set of connections: Ares supplied the opening goals against Las Palmas, Guruzeta found Martón, and Rodríguez's delivery forced the own goal at Albacete. Bautista's movement creates room for Mada and Gil to arrive beyond him, matching Aranbarri's emphasis on forwards opening space for the midfield.
Ramos's absence matters because his run supplied the receiving end of Escandell and Goti's direct combination against Gijón. After he left, Jacobo struggled to hold that outlet between the centre-backs. Juan Cruz is also absent, removing the second delivery that helped produce Domínguez's goal at Valladolid. Morales gives Oviedo another forward option, while Eibar's projected attack retains its demonstrated suppliers despite Gift's absence.
I expect spells of pressure from both teams, with Goti testing Eibar's midfield cover and Eibar looking to recover the ball before Oviedo can settle around their forward. Martón and Pejiño have also demonstrated a late counterattacking connection, giving the visitors another route as the match develops. The difference I favour is Eibar's continuity in supplying runners against Oviedo's changed outlet. That's why I'm siding with Eibar, with a level finish returning the stake.
