[2026 Emperor’s Cup] Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 7, 19:00 KST
Shimizu S-Pulse and V-Varen Nagasaki meet at IAI Stadium Nihondaira at 19:00 on October 7 in the third round of the Emperor’s Cup. The one-off tie pits two sides sitting in the lower half of mid-table in the J1 League, separated by two points. Shimizu’s three-game winning streak and V-Varen’s three straight league away defeats point to the home side, but the way both teams score and the uncertainty over their starting lineups make this a more complicated matchup.
1. Match overview and team form
Shimizu S-Pulse are 12th in the 2026-27 J1 League with 10 points from 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in 8 matches. V-Varen Nagasaki are 15th with 8 points from 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses. Over that span, Shimizu have scored 6 and conceded 8, while V-Varen have scored 10 and conceded 15. Shimizu’s low scoring has led to plenty of close games, while V-Varen have found the net more often but also let in far more goals. V-Varen have lost all 3 of their league away matches, conceding 8 goals.
J1 League, 8 matches Record: Shimizu S-Pulse 3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses / V-Varen Nagasaki 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses Goals for and against: Shimizu S-Pulse 6 for, 8 against / V-Varen Nagasaki 10 for, 15 against Home and away records: Shimizu S-Pulse at home 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses / V-Varen Nagasaki away 3 losses
Shimizu have beaten Avispa Fukuoka, JEF United and Zweigen Kanazawa in succession. Their two league wins were both by a one-goal margin, and shots on target were level at 4-4 against JEF United. Against J3 side Zweigen Kanazawa, Shimizu trailed 2-10 in first-half shots before scoring twice after the break. The winning run reflects their second-half finishing and use of substitutes, but it does not show that they dominated opponents from the outset. All 6 of Shimizu’s goals in their last 4 competitive matches came in the second half.
V-Varen beat Nagoya Grampus 2-0 at home in September and drew 1-1 with Cerezo Osaka. In both matches, they let the opposition have the ball, defended, then moved forward quickly to score. They had just 34% possession against Nagoya but led 14-8 in shots. In their most recent match, though, they lost 2-0 away to Gainare Tottori despite having plenty of the ball, struggling to create clear chances. They are dangerous when opponents push forward, but have found it harder to break down a defence when asked to build attacks in possession.
The teams have split their two meetings this year. Shimizu won 3-0 away on April 5, with Oh Se-hun scoring the opener by pressing goalkeeper Masaaki Goto’s kick straight after kick-off. V-Varen won 2-1 at this ground on April 29, but a Shimizu defender was sent off in the eighth minute, leaving V-Varen with a numerical advantage for most of the match. The first game came against a V-Varen side with a different approach to playing out from the back, while the second was played 11 against 10. Neither result is a straightforward guide to this meeting at full strength.
The playing time of both teams’ forwards will matter when the lineups are announced. Oh Se-hun played 72 minutes for South Korea the day before the match, while Yudai Shimamoto played 81 minutes in the Asian Games final on October 3. The pair scored all 4 of Shimizu’s goals in the April meetings, but neither is certain to start this time. If Oh begins on the bench, Shimizu could start Kosuke Kinoshita and Kai Matsuzaki, then bring on Oh to use his aerial ability in the second half. When Shimamoto is off the pitch, Kai Matsuzaki and Ryo Germain will need to take on more of the finishing inside the box.
For V-Varen, the key question is whether Thiago Santana will play. He uses his strength to hold up long balls from the defence, giving teammates time to join the attack, and also contests aerial balls at set pieces. With an away league match against JEF United Chiba four days later, his starting spot is uncertain. Matheus Jesus and Tenmu Matsumoto are options in attack, but there is little evidence they can offer the same kind of aerial hold-up play that Thiago Santana has provided. In defence, Keita Takahata is out with a knee injury, limiting their options.
The schedule is a factor for both teams. They each played in the Levain Cup on September 29, then had 8 days off before this match, and both have league away games on October 11. Shimizu also have a Levain Cup fixture on October 14. Manager Takayuki Yoshida has said he is preparing with the run of fixtures in mind, so both sides may consider their next game when choosing starters and substitutes. If the score is level after regulation time, the tie will go to extra time and a penalty shootout, but our score predictions here are for 90 minutes.
2. Matchup analysis
We expect Shimizu to have more of the ball at home, with V-Varen sitting in a defensive block. That would suit the way V-Varen created chances against Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka. After winning the ball, Motoki Hasegawa can play forward, while Thiago Santana can hold it up or Matheus Jesus can drive ahead, forcing Shimizu’s defenders into duels in their own half. Against Nagoya, Hasegawa’s passes led to Hijiri Onaga winning a penalty and Thiago Santana scoring on the counter.
Shimizu can deal with that threat in ways beyond pressing high. They scored by pressing the goalkeeper in April, but V-Varen have recently sent the ball straight toward their forwards instead of building with short passes from the back. That makes Shimizu’s defenders’ first contacts and the midfielders’ work on second balls important. After the Zweigen Kanazawa match, Yoshida said his team had lost too many first-half duels. If that happens again and Thiago Santana can hold the ball up, V-Varen can keep attacking even with little possession.
That approach would be less effective if Thiago Santana does not start. V-Varen would have a harder time keeping clearances up front, leaving Hasegawa and the wide players less time to join attacks. If Shimizu win the ball back and attack again more often, V-Varen’s defence will have to hold out for longer. Matheus Jesus can still drive forward and substitute forwards can make runs, but V-Varen cannot plan around the same aerial duels they get with Thiago Santana in the side.
At the other end, the question is how Shimizu will break down V-Varen’s defensive block. Shimizu have not scored consistently even in matches where they have enjoyed plenty of possession. Against Avispa Fukuoka, they had 6 shots inside the box recorded through the 83rd minute but scored only once. If V-Varen keep their defensive shape, Shimizu may struggle to make their passing game work. Daiki Hirato’s set pieces, crosses aimed at Oh Se-hun and Ryo Germain’s runs toward goal offer other routes to a chance.
V-Varen’s block does not prevent opponents from getting shots away. Against Cerezo Osaka, their expected goals against was 2.36, and Masaaki Goto kept the score at 1-1 by saving all 5 of the opposition’s shots on target apart from the penalty. If Shimizu create chances from crosses and set pieces, the goalkeeper could still shape the result. Shimizu also benefited from saves in their recent close games: Togo Umeda stopped 3 of JEF United’s 4 shots on target. Goalkeeping has played a direct role in both teams’ recent tight matches.
The way the game unfolds will also affect the attacks V-Varen can use. If they score first, they can sit in their defensive block, wait for Shimizu to push forward and look to counter again. But V-Varen let a 2-0 lead against Gamba Osaka slip after the 84th minute, conceding twice after the 90th, and they also failed to hold on to the lead against Cerezo. If they concede first, they will likely have to push forward in possession. They have lost all 3 recent competitive matches in which they trailed at half-time, and they could not score against Gainare Tottori despite controlling the ball. The opening goal will determine whether V-Varen can stick to the style that suits them or have to play in a way that has caused problems.
Shimizu can change the game with second-half substitutions. Yoshida has made several changes around the 60-minute mark in recent matches, and substitute Tomoya Fujii set up Oh Se-hun’s winner against JEF United. If Oh starts on the bench, bringing him on later would give Shimizu another target for crosses. Still, a goal scored soon after a substitution does not always come from the same tactical change. What matters today is the kind of shot the incoming player can create against V-Varen’s defence, rather than the substitution itself.
3. Verdict and prediction
Our 90-minute score predictions are 1-1 or 2-0 to Shimizu S-Pulse. If Thiago Santana starts, we lean toward 1-1. V-Varen could defend in the first half, score first with a forward pass from Motoki Hasegawa or from a set piece, then see Shimizu respond through second-half substitutions and set pieces. If Thiago Santana is left out of the starting lineup, V-Varen’s aerial threat up front would weaken, and we expect Shimizu to score first after the break and add a second for a 2-0 win.
Shimizu have scored most of their recent goals in the second half, and Yoshida has the option of adding Oh Se-hun’s aerial presence and Tomoya Fujii’s passing with substitutes. V-Varen are dangerous when they can sit back and counter, but have struggled when they conceded first and had to attack in possession. Both teams play away in the league four days later, so lineup decisions matter. Thiago Santana’s availability in particular will directly affect whether V-Varen can turn defence into sustained attacks.
The market has leaned toward the home side on the strength of Shimizu’s home advantage and three-game winning streak, along with V-Varen’s three straight league away defeats. We agree with the direction of the home-side lean, but give the draw more weight after considering Shimizu’s first-half performances during the winning run and how V-Varen might play if they score first. If V-Varen can keep Shimizu at bay in the second half away from home, as they did against Nagoya Grampus, our 1-1 prediction with Thiago Santana starting could turn into a one-goal away win for V-Varen.
