[2026 Men’s International Friendly] South Korea vs Uzbekistan Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 6, 20:00 KST
South Korea and Uzbekistan meet at Yongin Mireu Stadium at 8 p.m. on October 6 in a men’s international friendly. It is South Korea’s final match in a four-game international window across September and October. Interim coach Robert Moreno needs a result and must also address the slow starts that have recurred in the first three games. Uzbekistan have won twice since the World Cup and will test whether their new high press can work away to South Korea.
1. Match overview and team form
South Korea, under Moreno, beat Ecuador 3-0, lost 4-1 to Uruguay and drew 0-0 with Venezuela. The pattern across those three games stands out more than the record of 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. South Korea scored no first-half goals and conceded all three goals against Uruguay before the break. Their second-half goal difference was 4-1. Moreno acknowledged that the first-half performances had been worse and said he made changes at half-time because it was difficult to adjust the tactics during the half. Against Uruguay, South Korea were already 3-0 down before those changes. Against Venezuela, they still failed to score afterward.
Recent form Results: South Korea under Moreno: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in 3 matches, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded / Uzbekistan since the World Cup: 2 wins in 2 matches, with 7 goals scored and 2 conceded Match pattern: South Korea scored 0 and conceded 3 in first halves, then scored 4 and conceded 1 in second halves / Uzbekistan led at half-time against both Iran and Syria Player factors: South Korea’s Kim Min-jae is a doubt, while Cho Gue-sung has left the squad / Uzbekistan left Eldor Shomurodov out of the starting XI against Syria
South Korea’s first-half problems were most evident when opponents pressed high. Against Uruguay, they lost the ball in their own half and conceded the opening goal moments later from a through ball. Moreno said South Korea lacked a central passing option and struggled against the pressure. Even with Hwang In-beom back in the starting XI against Venezuela, South Korea found it difficult to play out from the back. The issue is not just whether Hwang plays, but who is available ahead of him to receive the ball. Venezuela also blocked Lee Kang-in’s route inside from the right to use his left foot. South Korea did not manage a shot until near the end of the first half.
There were signs of improvement after the break. Against Ecuador, Moreno adjusted the press and build-up at half-time, and South Korea went ahead with goals from Oh Hyeon-gyu and Son Heung-min early in the second half. The first goal took a deflection off an Ecuador defender, while the second was a direct free kick from Son. Ecuador’s long journey and second-half fatigue should also be considered when assessing the result. Against Uruguay, South Korea created more chances after changing the central midfielders’ positions, but conceded again after failing to stop a cross in the box. The improvement in their second-half attack does not mean their defensive problems were solved.
Uzbekistan lost five straight matches, including all three games at the World Cup, against Canada, the Netherlands, Colombia, Portugal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They have since beaten Iran 3-1 and Syria 4-1. Coach Fabio Cannavaro moved away from the back five he mostly used at the World Cup, building his last two line-ups around a back four, a high press and quick transitions. In the 10th minute against Iran, Eldor Shomurodov intercepted a misplaced pass near the penalty area and scored. Against Syria, Shomurodov was left out of the starting XI and Husain Norchaev led the line. Norchaev scored twice, and Uzbekistan won despite using 18 players.
There are limits to what those two wins tell us. Both came at home against Asian sides. Iran took control after bringing on Sardar Azmoun and reorganising in the second half. The win over Syria also does not prove the same press will work away to South Korea. Cannavaro has said Uzbekistan will keep playing on the front foot against South Korea. How long they can sustain the press remains to be seen.
Kim Min-jae is the biggest question in South Korea’s squad. He missed team training on October 4 and 5 and instead did recovery work. A national team official said the issue was not serious enough to require him to leave the squad, and suggested he may be dealing with accumulated fatigue. If Kim cannot play, Kim Tae-hyeon of Kashima Antlers and Lee Han-beom are expected to partner at centre-back, though the starting line-up has not been confirmed. Kim did not play the full 90 minutes in any of the previous three matches. Cho Gue-sung left the squad because of muscle overload, and no replacement was called up. South Korea have played every four days since September 24. Uzbekistan have had five days to prepare since facing Syria on October 1, and Shomurodov did not start that game.
South Korea are ranked 32nd in the FIFA rankings, above Uzbekistan in 59th, and lead the head-to-head record with 11 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 16 meetings. Their last meeting was a 4-0 South Korean win in a 2018 friendly. Both teams have since changed coaches and squads, and Uzbekistan have also changed their defensive approach. What matters more than the historical record is how South Korea move the ball forward under pressure today.
2. Tactical matchup
The first contest is Uzbekistan’s high press against South Korea’s build-up from the back. Uzbekistan turned a defender’s misplaced pass into a goal against Iran. South Korea lost the ball against Uruguay and conceded from the next forward pass, while against Venezuela Hwang In-beom had no one ahead of him to receive the ball from the centre-backs. If South Korea leave Son Heung-min and Oh Hyeon-gyu high up the pitch without giving the midfield a passing option, Uzbekistan could win the ball in South Korea’s half and quickly find Shomurodov.
South Korea’s response depends on where a player can receive the ball ahead of Hwang. Moving Lee Jae-sung into the middle or bringing Lee Kang-in inside have both been discussed, but neither has been announced as the coach’s starting plan. If South Korea can connect through midfield, Uzbekistan’s high press could leave space behind their defence. They would then have to deal with Son and Oh running into that space. South Korea’s opener against Ecuador began with a forward pass from Kim Min-jae. If Kim is absent, another defender or a midfielder will need to play that ball. The lack of a sample of the replacement centre-back pairing starting together also adds uncertainty to the early build-up.
Kim’s availability will also affect South Korea’s response when they lose possession. He was credited with cleaning up from the back against Venezuela when the opposition broke through the press. If South Korea push their full-backs high and lose the ball, Uzbekistan can attack the space behind them. Their stoppage-time goal against Iran came from a counter down the left after the opposition pushed forward, finished by Husain Norchaev. Against Syria, Norchaev headed in a left-wing cross from Abbosbek Fayzullaev. How South Korea defend Uzbekistan’s left-sided attacks after their right-back advances is another key matchup. We cannot assume every player involved in those recent goals will start against South Korea.
South Korea also have a route to threaten Uzbekistan out wide. Uzbekistan conceded once against Iran and once against Syria, with both goals coming from own goals as they dealt with crosses from the opponents’ left. Iran also created more danger in the box after Azmoun came on and took control in the second half. If South Korea deliver crosses from the flanks and send Oh Hyeon-gyu into the box, Uzbekistan will have to handle situations similar to those recent concessions. With Cho Gue-sung out, South Korea could bring on Oh Se-hun later to challenge for aerial balls. That would require both a player to supply the crosses and runners attacking the box.
The first-half score will shape both coaches’ decisions after the break. If Uzbekistan take the lead, Moreno can try to chase the game with the half-time adjustments he has made in previous matches. If Uzbekistan keep pressing high, South Korea may find room behind the defence. If Uzbekistan drop deeper instead, they will need to deal with South Korea’s wide play and attacks into the box. If South Korea improve their midfield connections and score first, Uzbekistan may push forward to get back into the game. That could open space for South Korea’s forwards, while leaving the space behind their own full-backs vulnerable to counters. Both teams will need to decide how to defend once they take the lead.
Recent results alone do not make this a straightforward case of South Korea’s home advantage or Uzbekistan’s away weakness. Uzbekistan’s last four away defeats came against Canada, the Netherlands, Portugal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the home and away labels for the World Cup reflect the tournament schedule. Their two recent wins came with the new pressing approach, but against different opponents and at home. South Korea’s record across their last 16 matches also includes 13 games under former coach Hong Myung-bo. We should judge today’s tactical contest using the small samples available from South Korea’s 3 matches under Moreno and Uzbekistan’s last 2.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect South Korea 2-2 Uzbekistan. We give Uzbekistan a good chance of scoring first by pressing South Korea’s first pass or attacking down the left in the first half. South Korea can score twice after Moreno adjusts the midfield at half-time, using crosses from wide areas and set pieces. Even if South Korea equalise or take the lead, Uzbekistan can push forward again and target the space behind South Korea’s right-back. The order of the goals may vary, but we expect both teams to score during their stronger periods and concede to the other side’s attacks.
This prediction starts with the fact that South Korea failed to score in the first half of all three matches under Moreno. Uzbekistan’s new press directly targets the midfield connection problems South Korea have shown in that period. Whether Kim Min-jae plays, and for how long, affects both South Korea’s first forward pass and their ability to stop attacks after the opposition beats the press. After the break, Moreno’s adjustments and South Korea’s threat in the box should test an Uzbekistan defence that has conceded in both of its last two matches while dealing with crosses.
The market leans towards South Korea on the strength of their individual quality, home advantage and head-to-head record. We recognise that edge, but there is little evidence that South Korea will turn it into first-half goals. There is also little evidence that Uzbekistan can hold a first-half lead against Moreno’s second-half adjustments. We therefore favour a 2-2 draw over a one-sided South Korea win. The key factor that could change our view is South Korea improving their midfield connections in the starting line-up and playing through Uzbekistan’s press from the start.
