[2026 UEFA Nations League] France vs Belgium Analysis Preview Kickoff: Oct. 6, 03:45 (Korea time)
France and Belgium meet at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis at 03:45 Korea time on Oct. 6 for their fourth League A Group 1 match in the UEFA Nations League. France lead the group on 7 points, with Belgium second on 6. A week ago in Brussels, France won 1-0 on a Michael Olise goal in the 88th minute. In the rematch on a new ground, we expect Belgium's hole in midfield and how both sides use their benches after the break to decide the game.
1. Match Overview and Team News
If Belgium win, the group leaders change. If France win, the gap between the two grows to 4 points. A Belgian defeat would cut their lead over Italy, on 4 points, to 2. Belgium's last match in November is a home game against Italy, so this game carries both the fight for first place and the defence of second. The top two in each League A group reach the quarter-finals. Both teams played their previous match on Oct. 3 Korea time, so rest days are equal, and no rain is forecast for kickoff in Saint-Denis. The difference comes from neither travel nor weather, but from how heavily each side has used its regulars during the same camp.
Teams France: 3 matches in this tournament, 7 points · 3 scored, 1 conceded / Key absentees for this match: Kylian Mbappé, Dayot Upamecano, Ibrahima Konaté Belgium: 3 matches in this tournament, 6 points · 5 scored, 1 conceded / Key absentees for this match: Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Jérémy Doku, Amadou Onana
Zinedine Zidane's France have used a 4-3-3 in all three matches of this tournament. They beat Türkiye and Belgium 1-0 each and drew 1-1 with Italy. They held at least 65% possession in all three but did not score in any first half, and they scored exactly one goal per game. The Türkiye goal came from winning the ball high up the pitch after an opponent's failed clearance. In Brussels, substitute Olise beat a defender on the right and scored the winner, and the Italy goal came from an Olise free kick. Long spells of possession and chances created through the middle are two different things.
Zidane has been bold with his selection. He changed nine starters from the Türkiye game to the Belgium game, and six from the Belgium game to the Italy game. He has signalled more changes this time. Mbappé is out with a knee tendon injury, but in the last two games without him France already alternated Esteban Lepaul and Ousmane Dembélé up front. Neither has scored in this camp, so finishing by the central striker is still an open question. The suspended Upamecano and the injured Konaté are likely to be replaced by Maxence Lacroix and Jérémy Jacquet, who played together in Brussels. The holding midfield spot, where the likely starter is unclear, also matters. In Brussels and against Italy, France gave up chances through mistakes in their own half.
Marc Vanhaemel's Belgium started all three matches in a 4-2-3-1 and rotated their starters less than France. They won 2-0 away to Italy and 3-0 at home to Türkiye, but lost 0-1 to France. The single goal conceded in this tournament owes something to their defensive organisation, but also a lot to Senne Lammens's saves. Against Türkiye they allowed 22 shots. Vanhaemel also did not rate his team's play on the ball in that game. They can keep sitting back against strong opponents and hitting on the break, but the players who start those breaks today will be different.
De Bruyne and Tielemans are both suspended through accumulated cautions. De Bruyne intercepted a pass and sent the forward ball to Mika Hotz before the opening goal against Italy, and Tielemans linked the play in the build-up to the Türkiye goal. In Brussels, the pair also took the free kicks and corners. Vanhaemel said Romeo Lavia and Nicolas Raskin can play together. That pairing can help shield the back line, but whether it can also supply the pass that sends the ball behind the defence the moment it is won is a separate question. With Doku on the wing and Onana in midfield also out, the replacement options have shrunk.
France have won the last 6 meetings. Five of them were by one goal, and the latest win in Brussels was decided in the 88th minute. Still, 5 of those 6 results came before either manager took charge. More useful today than the old results are the actual scenes from the latest meeting. Belgium's early press forced a turnover from goalkeeper Mike Maignan, and in the second half Dodi Lukebakio's counter-attacks caused problems. France had 65% possession but needed an individual run from Olise late on to score.
2. Matchup Analysis
Belgium's most direct chance comes if they press the French back line early. In Brussels, Maignan lost the ball in the middle under pressure after just 2 minutes. Against Italy, Lucas Da Cunha, in front of the defence, mishandled the ball in his own half and gave away the equaliser. France's centre-back and holding-midfield combination may change again today, so the first pass from the goalkeeper into midfield will be tested. If Hotz joins the press through the middle, the moment the French holding midfielder receives the ball is especially important.
Winning the ball early is not enough for us to expect a goal. In Brussels, Belgium won a corner after Maignan's mistake but did not score, and this time De Bruyne, who took the set pieces then, is missing. If Lavia and Raskin hold the midfield, they can disrupt France's progress, but after a turnover Belgium will probably depend more on Hotz or the wide players carrying the ball themselves. If Belgium win it in the French half and shoot straight away, the outlook changes. France have never conceded first under Zidane, so we cannot judge how they chase a game from these three matches.
Once France get through the early pressure, we expect a setup similar to Brussels: France with long spells of possession, Belgium guarding the middle with two holding midfielders in front of the back line. Olise is the centre of France's attack. He was involved in all 3 French goals in this tournament. For the winner in Brussels, he beat Maxim De Cuyper on the right, cut inside and finished with his left foot. If Olise starts today, Belgium's left-sided defender must face him from the first minute. If French right-back Jules Koundé also pushes forward, the defensive work of Belgium's wide forward and the support from midfield become important.
Belgium do not have to leave Olise in one-on-one situations all game. A holding midfielder can shift to the left and double up with the defender. Against Italy, Olise also pushed up the right but did not score from open play, and the goal came from a free kick. France's central strikers also have no goals in this camp. So even if France have the ball from the first half, we have little reason to think they will turn the space in front of the defence straight into goals. On the other hand, if more Belgian players get drawn to the flank to stop Olise's runs, France can look for chances through central combinations and set pieces.
Key battles First pass from the back: France's tools: keep possession in a 4-3-3 even if the starters change / Belgium's response and chance: early pressing to force turnovers France's right flank: France's tools: Olise's dribbling, left-footed shots and free kicks / Belgium's response and chance: left-sided defender and midfielder defending together Behind France's left-back: France's tools: the full-back getting back quickly after going forward / Belgium's response and chance: Lukebakio carrying the ball and Lukaku finishing
On the counter, Lukebakio is Belgium's clearest weapon. Against Italy he came off the bench and scored after dribbling from his own half, and in Brussels he went past France's left-back for a second-half shot. If the defender on the far side also goes forward while France attack down Olise's side, or if France lose the ball in their own half, Lukebakio gets room to run. Whether he starts is disputed, though. Vanhaemel brought him on at around 60 minutes in both the Italy game and the Brussels game, which points to a second-half role. Romelu Lukaku also scored as a substitute against Türkiye.
The second-half squads are likely to favour France. Zidane keeps changing his starters, yet in Brussels he saw Rayan Cherki, brought on in the 77th minute, combine with Olise for the winner. Vanhaemel, on the other hand, has said that a fourth consecutive start will be hard for a good number of his regulars. Hotz, Charles De Ketelaere and Timothy Castagne are expected to start again. Belgium can also add attacking strength with Lukebakio and Lukaku. But with De Bruyne and Tielemans missing, even after pacey forwards come on, the way the ball reaches them is different from the first game. If France score first and Belgium push forward for an equaliser, a tired back line will have to deal with France's attacking substitutes too.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
We rate France scoring first after the break and winning 2-0 as the likelier outcome. Belgium can unsettle France's rebuilt back line with early pressure, but without De Bruyne and Tielemans it is harder than in the first game to turn a won ball into a scoring chance through a forward pass or a set piece. France may again need time to break down Belgium's central defence in the first half. After that, we expect Olise to put them ahead with a run down the right or a free kick, and an attacking substitute to make the second goal as Belgium push forward to equalise.
The market backs France because of home advantage, top spot in the group, the run of wins in the head-to-head and Belgium's absentees. We agree on the direction, but we put more weight on Belgium having fewer ways to claw back once behind, and on the effect of the regulars' accumulated minutes on the second-half margin. The second-half changes Vanhaemel has used so far will not be enough to make up for the forward passing of the two missing players. That said, if Belgium win the ball high through early pressure and score first, France will have to chase a game for the first time under Zidane. If Olise drops out of the starting line-up, or France's first goal comes after the 75th minute, the 2-goal win we expect becomes harder.
