[2026 UEFA Nations League] Italy vs Türkiye preview and analysis Kick-off: 3:45 a.m. on October 6 (Korea time)
Italy and Türkiye meet in Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara at 3:45 a.m. Korea time on October 6 for their fourth UEFA Nations League League A, Group 1 match. Italy won 4-1 in Bursa seven days ago. For the rematch, Italy are set to make several changes, while Türkiye are without some of the players who led their attack that day.
1. Match overview and team form
Italy have four points from three matches and sit third in the group. They lost 2-0 at home to Belgium, won 4-1 away to Türkiye, then drew 1-1 away to France. They need a home win to keep pace with France on seven points and Belgium on six. Türkiye have lost to France, Italy and Belgium, leaving them without a point. They have scored once and conceded eight goals in three games. Their only goal came from Barış Alper Yılmaz in Bursa.
This match also wraps up Roberto Mancini’s four-game run with a new-look Italy squad. He returned in July after Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup, and has used a 4-3-3 in all three matches while making significant changes to his starting lineup. He made eight changes from the Belgium game for the trip to Bursa and won, then kept most of that lineup for the France match. After playing France just three days ago, Mancini has said he will make more changes. Training combinations reported by Sky Sport on October 5 left only Gianluigi Donnarumma and Alessandro Bastoni from the France starting XI. Italy need the points, but Mancini also wants to manage fatigue and assess other players.
Türkiye’s recent results reflect both missed chances and the higher level of opposition. They failed to score against Australia and Paraguay at the World Cup despite posting a combined expected-goals figure of 3.53, according to Data Center. Against France in the Nations League, İsmail Yüksek’s header from an Arda Güler corner was saved by Mike Maignan, and Türkiye also missed several chances to equalize against Belgium. In Bursa, though, they had conceded three goals by the 27th minute. Vincenzo Montella singled out the opening half-hour of that match as a problem. Calls for him to resign resurfaced after the Belgium game, and reporters asked about his future at the pre-match press conference.
Türkiye are unlikely to create as many chances as they did in the previous match. Güler and Yılmaz are suspended after picking up yellow cards against Belgium. Montella has also confirmed that Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız, Orkun Kökçü and Mert Müldür will miss out. Can Uzun is a doubt after thigh discomfort prevented him from completing the final training session. Güler took shots and set pieces, while Yılmaz scored Türkiye’s only goal in this group. Italy also have Moise Kean and Giacomo Raspadori out injured, but their bigger change comes from Mancini’s planned rotation.
Expected setup Italy: 4-3-3 / Türkiye: 4-2-3-1, with a back three also possible Expected attacking lineups: Italy: Vergara, Scamacca, Maldini / Türkiye: Aydın, Akgün, Aktürkoğlu, Deniz Gül Key absences: Italy: Kean, Raspadori / Türkiye: Güler, Yılmaz, Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız, Kökçü, Müldür
These are projected lineups, not confirmed teams. Türkiye have started all three previous Nations League matches with a back three, though some recent projections have them switching to a back four. The shape they choose will change how they defend the left flank Italy targeted in Bursa.
Italy lead the all-time head-to-head record with 10 wins and four draws. But the Bursa match was the only time these two coaches have faced each other. Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito all played a part in goals from Italy’s right flank that day, and all three are expected to start on the bench this time. That makes the 4-1 scoreline in Bursa a poor guide to the likely margin today. Both teams played their previous match on October 3 Korea time, but if Zeki Çelik and Oğuz Aydın start as expected, it will be their fourth start in 11 days.
2. Matchup analysis
Italy are likely to have more of the ball at home early on. Mancini’s best results, though, have not all come from dominating possession. Italy had 55% possession and 20 shots against Belgium at home, but lost 2-0. The first goal came after Kevin De Bruyne won the ball from Alessandro Romano in midfield and played a forward pass. By contrast, Italy created dangerous chances while seeing less of the ball away to Türkiye and France. In Bursa, they played short passes to advance to the edge of the box before finding Kayode on the right. In Paris, Bastoni won the ball high up the pitch and scored the equalizer himself. The lineup expected today is different from the combinations that produced those attacks away from home.
Nicolo Barella is expected to line up in midfield with Romano and Issa Doumbia. Romano made his senior Italy debut against Belgium, while Doumbia has come off the bench during this four-match run. If the two start together and take responsibility for playing out from the back at home, Türkiye will look for chances to win the ball in Italy’s half. Yüksek and Salih Özcan will need to intercept a pass and quickly find Akgün or Aydın. As with Belgium’s first goal, winning the ball is only the start; Türkiye must move forward immediately to create a shot. Güler is unavailable, and Türkiye were also criticized for failing to press effectively in Bursa. That is why Italy’s midfield changes do not automatically translate into scoring chances for Türkiye.
Italy’s left flank will face Türkiye’s right. In Bursa, Türkiye’s goal began with defender Abdülkerim Bardakcı sending a long pass from his own half to Aydın on the right. Aydın played a low ball across for Yılmaz to finish. Matteo Ruggeri is expected to start at left back for Italy again. If he pushes forward while Daniel Maldini moves inside to receive the ball and Italy then lose possession, Aydın can attack the space behind him. If Maldini and Ruggeri keep Çelik and Aydın occupied defensively, Türkiye will have fewer chances to switch play to the right. Which team can keep possession and build attacks down that flank will also shape the opponent’s main route forward. Aydın can still link up play, but someone else will take Yılmaz’s place as the finisher from Bursa.
Italy’s right side will also look different from the first match. Kayode had two shooting chances against the left side of Türkiye’s back three in Bursa, and Italy scored in quick succession. Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Antonio Vergara are expected to play on the right today. If Türkiye use a back four as expected, Kerem Aktürkoğlu will line up ahead of left back Ferdi Kadıoğlu, changing the setup Kayode faced in Bursa. Italy may need Barella to support on the right or Gianluca Scamacca to drop deeper and receive the ball to build attacks there. If Türkiye keep their back three, the flank battle from Bursa will matter again, but Italy will have different players looking to exploit the space.
Set pieces provide some continuity from the Bursa match. Italy’s opener in the ninth minute came when Türkiye failed to deal with Ruggeri’s low corner at the near post and Bastoni finished. Both are expected to start again. Italy will also have Gianluca Mancini and Scamacca as aerial threats. Türkiye have Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak and Yüksek, but Güler, who delivered the set pieces that produced headers against France and Belgium, is suspended. The taker will change, as will the players expected to get on the end of the ball.
Second-half substitutions will be part of the tactical battle too. Mancini brought on two or three players at once in the 60th minute or later when Italy were trailing against Belgium and France. Based on the projected lineup, Tonali, Frattesi, Kayode and Pio Esposito are among the regulars from the previous matches who could start on the bench. Italy will have options to change their attacking approach if they fail to score in the first half. Türkiye are expected to start Aktürkoğlu and Yüksek, whom Montella brought on at half-time in Bursa when his side were 3-0 down. With more absences, Türkiye may struggle to make the same kind of changes after the break. If Çelik and Aydın are still on the pitch, they will also have to contend with Italy’s substitutes late in the game.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect Italy to win. There are still questions over the new midfield pairing and the right-sided attack, but Ruggeri and Bastoni remain a threat from set pieces, and Italy could also win the ball high up the pitch if Türkiye fail to play out cleanly. Mancini can bring on regular starters from the previous matches if his team struggle to get going. Türkiye may get chances to intercept Italy’s passes, but they will have to replace Güler’s forward passing and set-piece delivery, as well as Yılmaz’s finishing, with other players. We think Türkiye’s attacking absences over the full 90 minutes matter more than the uncertainty created by Italy’s changes at the start.
The market has set a high goals line for this match after the five-goal game in Bursa and Türkiye’s recent heavy defeats. But three of Italy’s four scorers there, Frattesi, Kayode and Pio Esposito, are expected to miss out on the starting lineup, while Türkiye’s goalscorer Yılmaz is unavailable. We back Italy to win, but there is little reason to expect a repeat of the scoring pattern from Bursa.
Our score prediction is 2-0 or 3-0 to Italy. If Italy take the lead in the first half from a set piece or a turnover in Türkiye’s defensive third, Türkiye are likely to push forward in search of an equalizer, leaving Italy’s substitutes a chance to add a goal late on. If Italy’s new midfield repeatedly gives the ball away in its own half and Türkiye score first through Aydın’s attack down the right or from a set piece, our expectations of an Italy clean sheet and a win by at least two goals would both change.
