Two matches where the shape of the game points toward a clear script.
AC Milan host a Bologna side that has lost its main forwards. Bologna score about a goal a game and create little, while Milan keep the ball and produce chances at home. Milan won at Udinese with the same midfield shortage and took both recent meetings with Bologna. The patched centre-back pairing is the worry, but Bologna have few runners left to attack it. That is why I'm siding with Milan to win.
Sparta Rotterdam against Sittard is a cup tie where Sparta hold the ball but leak at the back, conceding close to two expected goals a game and playing open games like 3-2 and 3-3. Sittard shoot rarely, yet their opponent's defence turns even a few chances into goals. I expect Sparta to dominate territory and the game to open once a first goal lands. That is why I'm leaning toward goals in this one.
