Ziraat Bankkart are clearly the stronger side, but they are still a team being put together. The champions have dropped a set in four straight matches, including two home games against sides at a similar level to this opponent, because their setter link and one key outside role are still unsettled. Sungurlu are promoted and pointless, yet they have taken a set in three of their four league matches. This shapes up as a Ziraat win with a real chance that one middle set slips away.
Coach Kavaz said in mid-October that the squad needs three and a half to four months to gel, and the matches since then back him up. The setter job has moved between veteran Toniutti and young Hilmi Sahin. Ishikawa has not been in the listed starting six since the opener at Fenerbahce, which is still Ziraat's only clean sweep. Against Altekma at home they needed five sets, and Gaziantep took a set off them in this hall too.
The key matchup is Ziraat's attack against Sungurlu's block. Sungurlu's attack is far weaker, but their block is a real weapon: ten blocks against Galatasaray, and set wins of 25-23, 25-19 and 25-20 that came on block runs. Ensing at opposite and Alve Espeland on the outside just need to keep one set close into the twenties. The other side of it is Ziraat's serve against Sungurlu's reception. That is how Gebze swept them, and it is Ziraat's route to a quick night.
Load matters as well. Ziraat played a 138-minute five-setter at Alanya three days earlier, and they have Istanbul BB and a cup match coming in the next week. Against the bottom side, resting Nimir or another regular is plausible, and a rotated six is less settled, not more. Sungurlu also know this Ankara hall, having played here on their last outing.
I expect Ziraat to take the first set on serve pressure. The match swings on whether a middle set reaches the closing points with Ziraat's link still out of rhythm. The setter rotation, the missing outside role, the five-set load and the fixture list all point to the same weakness in this Ziraat side, and Sungurlu's block is built to exploit it. That's why I'm siding with Sungurlu to take at least one set and push this match past three sets.
