Three matches, one shape: in each, the stronger side's edge shows up in this season's own content against opponents like the one it faces, not just in the table. Ziraat's carried-over core meets a young Altekma reception, Lazio's set pieces and wide delivery meet a Parma side missing the two players behind most of its goals, and Porto's away league control meets a Gil Vicente side that lives on one or two counters. In all three the weaker side has fewer ways to hurt the favourite than the favourite has ways to break it down.
Ziraat vs Altekma. Ziraat kept their coach and their setter-opposite link, added Ishikawa, and won in straight sets away at Fenerbahce, closing three tight sets. Altekma lost to Gebze and Onikisubat in pre-season and were swept by this same Ziraat. The key matchup is Nimir and Ishikawa serving at Altekma's young reception, which is how Ziraat build mid-set leads. Altekma's carried-over setter-to-Ewert link and Young's serve can steal a set with a run or a deuce finish, as they did coming back against Spor Toto. Ziraat have a full week's rest and no fixture squeeze, and Ishikawa played and top-scored in his last match. I'm siding with Ziraat to win comfortably while allowing Altekma one set.
Lazio vs Parma. Against lower-table sides Lazio's chance edge repeats, at home to Genoa and away at Udinese. Parma's away content against top sides is the thinnest in the league sample: very little created at Juventus, Como and Inter, and plenty conceded. Almqvist and Elphege, involved in three of Parma's four league goals, are out, and Parma's last match without them produced no goal from 25 shots. Lazio's best routes don't need to pick a packed block apart: centre-backs arriving on set pieces and switches to Tavares and Isaksen hit Parma's box defending and a goalkeeper spot their coach calls open. Parma have conceded first in each of their last four league games, and once they have to come out, Lazio's transitions add more. Gattuso is expected to start his usual XI with no midweek game before this one. I'm with Lazio to win.
Gil Vicente vs Porto. In four away league games against home sides that sat back, Porto controlled territory and allowed very little, and they have scored at least twice in every league game. Their goals come from midfield runners like Veiga and Froholdt, set-piece centre-backs and Pepe's passing, so the injured William Gomes doesn't remove their main routes; recent games were already played without him. Gil's plan against top sides is to sit deep and hit Porto's advanced full-backs on the break, which brought an early goal at Benfica before they were outplayed. Porto have come from behind to win all three league games in which they conceded first, and Gil play with stand-ins at centre-back and left-back. I'm backing Porto to win away.
