Both matches set a side that keeps making chances against an opponent short of the players to answer it. Middlesbrough's shot volume meets a Wrexham attack down to one fit senior striker. Porto's wide play and second-half bench meet a Napoli side with no recognised full-back, playing again three days after their last match. In both, the stronger side's main route runs straight into the other side's weakest unit.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough. Over their last ten, Middlesbrough averaged around twenty shots and more than two expected goals a game, and that held away from home at Stoke and Bolton. Wrexham averaged about one expected goal and managed a single shot on target in each of their last two. Since then they have lost Sam Smith long-term with a knee injury, on top of Windass and Broadhead. That leaves Kieffer Moore as the only outlet, and a lone Moore produced little at Sheffield United.
Wrexham's real routes are set pieces, with Worrall, Hyam and Moore attacking Whiteman and Imray deliveries, and one counter behind Middlesbrough's high full-backs. Middlesbrough often score early, and once ahead they force Wrexham to open up with no second striker. When they fell behind against Cardiff's block, they came back from two goals down with thirty-six shots. That's why I'm siding with Middlesbrough on the road.
Porto vs Napoli. Napoli arrive without Di Lorenzo, Olivera, Spinazzola and Favasuli, plus Buongiorno and Lobotka. That forces a back three with Politano and Lang as makeshift wing-backs. They made very little at Juventus a few days ago and conceded twice after the seventieth minute down the flank Porto like to attack. They also faded late at Villarreal and against Bodo.
Under Farioli, Porto keep the ball at home and score mostly after the break through crosses and bench players such as Sainz and André Silva. Their European problem has been getting pressed in build-up, but a short-handed Allegri side is likely to sit rather than press. Porto need the win, and Napoli's set-piece threat from Rrahmani and Marín is the main way they could hold on. I'm siding with Porto at home, with the second half the phase where it should open up.
