This is a meeting between a Middlesbrough side that creates steadily against anyone and a Wrexham team that has lost the players who gave it a second-half plan. Boro's volume has held up away from home, and their defence has kept recent opponents to small chances. Wrexham's threat is concentrated in the opening half hour, through set pieces and Moore in the air. Once that window passes, the game should tilt clearly towards the visitors.
Boro's attack produced big chance totals at Bolton, Stoke and Birmingham, and they put at least six shots on target in every game I read, away matches included. Wrexham's defence gave up solid chances to sides of a similar level, such as Southampton and Blackburn. Going the other way, Wrexham managed just one shot on target in each of their last two games, and they created little against mid and upper-table defences. Boro's back line has not allowed a big chance total in any of its last six games.
The key matchup is Boro's wide play against Wrexham's wing-backs. Repeated crosses and cut-backs for Lankshear and Conway, plus Berhalter's set pieces, should push Wrexham into a back five and keep them there.
The absences matter most for the home side. Smith was Wrexham's scoring option off the bench, and he is now out alongside Windass and Broadhead. That leaves Wrexham with nothing measured to turn to if they fall behind. Boro have been without A. Jones for weeks, so their numbers already reflect the side that will take the field.
The first thirty minutes are Wrexham's window, as Cardiff showed by scoring twice before half-time against Boro. After that, Boro's chances usually build, with goals arriving after the break at Stoke and Bolton. If Boro go ahead, Wrexham must open up without bench options, and Boro have shown they keep control and add to a lead.
That's why I'm backing Middlesbrough to win this one with something to spare. Wrexham's chasing phase has no outlet any more.
