Vélez are unbeaten after ten rounds and sit fourth, but they create very little. They're outshot in most games and score well above the quality of their chances. Platense are the opposite: they hold their own on chances but hardly ever finish them. Two attacks that don't produce much point me to a tight, level game rather than another home win.
The numbers on Vélez are striking for a team near the top. Across recent games they average around 0.8 expected goals while giving up 1.2. On average they take about 10 shots and face 16. They still score about 1.4 a game, so the finishing has been carrying them.
Platense look much better than 13th on chances. Their expected goals are 1.1 for and 1.0 against, and they win the corner count clearly, about six to two and a half. The problem is the end product: 0.8 goals a game over their last ten, and not once three or more.
Draws have been Vélez's most common result lately, five in their last ten under Barros Schelotto. Recent meetings with Platense have been low affairs too, including a 0-0 and a 1-1. Palermo's side arrive on a high after reaching the Copa Argentina semi-finals for the first time.
