The cup thrashing a few days ago is the loudest fact about this match, but it was played in Cologne under very different conditions. At the Alte Forsterei in the league, Union sit in a compact low block. Koln, without a recognised striker, have the ball but little presence in the box against sides that defend deep. The likeliest shape is a tight, low-chance game decided by a set piece or a single turnover.
Union at home give up the ball and protect the middle. In October, with the same centre-back pair of Van den Bosch and Querfeld, they allowed Elversberg almost nothing and kept Dortmund to modest chances. Their own attack is thin and lives on second balls, crosses and set pieces, with Juranovic's delivery possibly back.
Koln under Wagner play a diamond with El Mala, Maina and Bulter as runners, and they score when they win the ball high against a team building out. Against compact sides that keep the ball safe, they have been blunt: a goalless draw with Schalke and a narrow defeat at Frankfurt.
The matchup that decides the goals is Union's build-up against Kraus and Koln's press. In the cup, the goals came from a regain and a defensive error in an open second half, with Union's cup keeper in goal. Lustrinelli has made compactness the priority, and the first-choice keeper is expected back. Neither side has a fresh absence that opens the game up.
Expect a cagey first half. Both sides' October league first halves were mostly goalless, and neither coach can afford to lose. Five of these two teams' six October league games had two goals or fewer.
That's why I expect few goals at the Alte Forsterei.
