Two away sides whose results are lagging behind how they actually play. Omiya travel to a Miyazaki team on a three-game winning run, but the chance numbers say Omiya are the better side at both ends. Granada go to Zubieta winless in four, yet they're facing a Real Sociedad B side that hasn't won at home and is short of bodies. In both games I'm backing the visitors' quality over the recent headlines.
Omiya are the only unbeaten team in J2. They take 16.5 shots a game, and only 11.3 come back the other way, both near the top of the league. Their expected goals against sits at 1.05 per game. Miyazaki's run came against Vanraure, Sapporo and Fujieda, sides with poor home or away records, and they still conceded twice in each of their last two home wins. When Miyazaki met stronger teams, they lost 2-4 at Sendai and 0-2 at Tosu.
Omiya have a few injuries, but they were already missing those players when they beat Kofu 5-1. Caprini, Izumi, Carlinhos Junior and Sekiguchi all played a part that day.
Real Sociedad B have scored once in three home games and tend to have well under half the ball. Their wins came away on the break. Kita and Mariezkurrena are suspended after both were sent off at Ceuta, Orobengoa is out long-term, and the filial played midweek at Leicester. Granada had nearly eight days' rest against under four for the hosts.
Granada's form looks worse than their play. They out-shot Andorra 23 to 6 and still lost, and Pacheta has said he'll reshuffle the side to tighten up at the back.
