Game 3 at the Trop looks built for a low, late-decided game. Both teams have their run prevention coming from units that are actually available for this match: a Tampa Bay starter in the best form of his season, and a Milwaukee bullpen that takes over early. An off day has reset both pens. The one route to a big scoring night is the Rays' middle relief, and Peralta's length is what limits how much of it gets used.
The series so far tells the story. Milwaukee lead 2-0 after two one-run wins. Game 1, with both starters going about five innings, finished with five runs. Game 2 needed two starters out by the fourth inning to reach nine, as Seymour gave up the tying homer and Wells the go-ahead run in the bridge innings.
The key matchup is Peralta against a patient Brewers order that walks a lot. Since late August he has been close to untouchable after changing his delivery and pitch mix, he has been excellent at the Trop, and he has got at least 14 outs in every playoff start. He comes in on six days' rest. Walks are the Brewers' only real route into his pitch count.
On the other side, Gasser will be lifted before he sees the Rays' right-handed stack a third time, as Milwaukee have done all October. So the Rays bat against a Brewers bullpen that has been outstanding this postseason for four or more innings, with Megill fully fresh and Ashby and Uribe good for an inning each after the day off. That same bullpen threw six scoreless innings after the Rays' four-run first in Game 2.
For Tampa Bay, Baker has not pitched in the series and Booser threw only 13 pitches, so if Peralta reaches the sixth the middle relief may only need to cover a single inning. Down 0-2, Cash has every reason to go to his best arms early. The dome takes weather out of it.
Expect two to four runs per side at most, with the game swinging on one bridge inning. That's why I'm leaning to the low-scoring side in this one.
