This looks like a short, tight, bullpen-driven game rather than a slugfest. Both teams have already played one-run games in this series, and the starters on each side have been throwing clean outings lately. The late innings will decide it, and the arms that matter are the relievers.
The series moves to Tropicana Field with the Brewers up two games to none after 3-2 and 5-4 wins in Milwaukee. The roof removes wind and rain from the picture, so scoring comes down to pitchers and bullpens, not weather.
The Rays send Peralta, who faces his former club and last went just over five innings allowing one run. Milwaukee answers with the lefty Gasser, who threw five scoreless innings in his last start. Tampa's bat is the weak point, with a team average around .236 over the last ten, and Diaz is hitless in the series. Milwaukee's lineup is deeper and in form, which is why a run or two will come, but not necessarily a lot of them.
The bullpens are the open question. The Brewers manager said Ashby and Uribe are not fresh after heavy use in the first two games, while the Rays closer has not pitched in the series. Tampa's depth is thin with several arms out. Lineups here are projections, built on the same orders as the first two games.
I expect the starters to hold things down for five innings or so, a run or two early, and a one-run game decided late. That is why I'm siding with the lower-scoring outcome.
