Two games shaped by who is missing up front and who is tired. Juventus travel to Lecce on three days' rest with a thin squad and no wide dribblers, which makes a big margin hard to build. At Sunderland, both sides lose the forward who has produced most of their goals, and a storm is forecast on the coast. Both look like tight, low-margin afternoons.
Lecce v Juventus. Yildiz, Conceicao, Thuram and Locatelli are all out, leaving Juve with 17 outfield players. Without runners in behind, Lecce's block has less to fear. Juve's best route is crossing from Cambiaso and Kalulu toward their aerial strikers, and if they score early, Zhegrova and Boga could find space late, the way Milan beat Lecce.
But Lecce's own routes match how Juve conceded to Lazio a week ago: Gallo's corners onto Gaspar and Tiago Gabriel, and quick counters once Juve commit. Recently Spalletti's side has dropped deeper after taking the lead rather than pushing for more, and most recent meetings were decided by a goal or ended level. That's why I'm siding with Lecce to keep this tight.
Sunderland v Leeds. Leeds are without Calvert-Lewin, Okafor and Stach, so Wilson, Aaronson and Nmecha, mostly bench players this season, lead the line. Sunderland scored nothing in their last two league games without Brobbey and Isidor. Isidor is doubtful and Brobbey is only just back from a hamstring problem.
The open door is Sunderland's makeshift centre-back pair, which James and Nmecha can run at, as Bournemouth did. Even so, that mainly produces a Leeds goal or two. Leeds sit in shape when level or ahead, and their league draws have been 1-1 and 0-0. Strong wind should hurt crossing, which both teams rely on. I expect a low-scoring game here.
