These two matches both turn on a route that has been cut. At the Stadium of Light, Leeds arrive without the striker who turns their wing-back crosses into goals, against a Sunderland side whose home games have stayed level and tight for long spells. In Udine, a home back line that has been giving up big chances every week meets a tired, short-handed Milan who still have the attackers who hurt exactly that unit.
Sunderland under Le Bris are a compact 4-2-3-1 at home, and they are blunt when they have to break down a set block. All three of their league home games were goalless at half-time, and none of their five home games this season had more than two goals. When they get ahead, as against Fulham, Hull and AZ, they sit on it rather than open up.
Leeds' end product under Farke runs through wing-back crosses to Calvert-Lewin. Farke said Calvert-Lewin, Okafor and Stach were not fit, which leaves Nmecha as a much smaller target in the box. Away from home in the league, Leeds' open play has been thin outside one first half at Brighton. Add Sunderland's legs after Thursday in Poznan and a wind warning on the coast, which hurts crossing and long balls, and this looks like long level spells with one or two goals late. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game at Sunderland.
In Udine, Runjaic's side have lost five in a row in the league, and these were losses on content, not bad luck. They have given up big chances whether they held the ball (Lecce, Torino) or sat deep (Inter, Lazio), and they have created very little in four of their last five. Alaba and Zanoli are now out of that back line.
Milan come in tired after playing most of Thursday's game at Bournemouth with ten men, and without Rabiot, Moreira and Gila. That takes away midfield runs into the box and a wide route. But Pulisic, Ramos, Hutchinson and Modric's set-piece delivery are all still there, and they act directly on Udinese's weakened back three. I expect Milan to have the ball against a deep 5-4-1, and the first goal decides the shape. Milan have not won away in the league yet, so a draw is a real outcome, but Udinese have to score from very little. That's why I'm on Milan's side in this one, with cover for the draw.
