[2026 MLS] Chicago Fire FC vs Orlando City SC: Match Preview Kick-off: October 29, 00:30 UTC
Chicago Fire FC host Orlando City SC at Soldier Field on October 29 at 00:30 UTC. Chicago are looking to hold on to fourth place in the Eastern Conference, while Orlando need points to stay ahead of eighth-placed FC Cincinnati, who are level with them, and protect their place in the first round of the playoffs. Both teams need points, but they have conceded chances in different ways.
1. Match overview and team form
Both teams have played 31 regular-season matches, with three games left. Chicago Fire FC are fourth in the East with 15 wins, six draws, 10 losses and 51 points. They are four points ahead of fifth-placed Charlotte FC, and finishing in the top four brings an advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Orlando City SC are seventh with 12 wins, six draws, 13 losses and 42 points. They are level on points with eighth-placed FC Cincinnati, giving them a strong reason to earn points away from home.
Regular season, 31 matches Eastern Conference position and points: Chicago Fire FC, 4th, 51; Orlando City SC, 7th, 42 Goals scored and conceded: Chicago Fire FC, 55 and 46; Orlando City SC, 60 and 72 Last 20 matches: Chicago Fire FC, 10 wins, four draws, six losses; Orlando City SC, nine wins, five draws, six losses
Orlando have scored five more goals than Chicago but conceded 26 more. The home and away records matter especially in this match. Orlando have won nine, drawn three and lost four of their 16 home league games, scoring 32 and conceding 22. Away from home, they have three wins, three draws and nine losses in 15 matches, with 28 goals scored and 50 conceded. They have continued to score on the road, but have not kept goals out. The data center shows that they scored in each of their last nine away games and conceded at least three goals in six of them. Chicago have also scored and conceded in each of their last eight home matches. Even if the hosts take the lead, a clean sheet looks unlikely.
Both teams have picked up lately. Chicago won four of their last six matches after a six-game winless run. They came from behind to beat Atlanta United 3-2 away in their most recent game, despite conceding after just four minutes. Substitute Anzor Mekvabishvili came on at half-time, intercepted the goalkeeper's pass and scored the winner. Philip Zinckernagel finished from an indirect free kick after an opponent's back-pass error. The match showed that Chicago can win the ball high up the pitch and score, while also benefiting from an opponent's mistake. Several players have chipped in with goals during Robert Lewandowski's seven-game scoring drought.
Orlando are unbeaten in their last four games, with two wins and two draws. Their opponents were all 10th or lower in the East, though, and they let late equalisers in after taking the lead away to Toronto FC and against New York City FC. Antoine Griezmann has recorded an attacking contribution in 11 straight matches, while Martín Ojeda has done so in seven in a row. The team have also scored in 24 consecutive matches across all competitions. Their unbeaten run against lower-ranked teams is hard to carry over to a trip to Chicago, but they have shown they can score after conceding.
The coaches' usual approaches will also shape this match. Gregg Berhalter's Chicago Fire FC build from the back, use the flanks and press high. Their recent goals have come from winning the ball in the opposition half, second balls after corners and shots from outside the box. Interim coach Martín Perelman usually sets Orlando up in a 4-4-2, with Griezmann dropping deep to receive the ball and sharing the final pass and shooting duties with Martín Ojeda. Since Griezmann joined in July, Orlando have recorded eight wins, three draws and three losses in 14 matches. Their season record from the spring includes games played with a different forward line.
Absences in central areas are a concern for both teams. The data center's unavailable players list has Chicago centre-back Mbekezeli Mbokazi and defensive midfielder Dje Tah D'Avilla suspended, with midfielder Robin Lod and defender Samuel Rogers injured. Mekvabishvili, a candidate to replace D'Avilla, won the ball and scored in the last match, but has played only 88 minutes across three MLS appearances this season. Orlando are without centre-back Robin Jansson, who is out for the season, and central midfielder Eduard Atuesta, who is suspended. They lose two players who helped start their build-up. Brian Ojeda returned to the starting lineup in the last game.
There is still uncertainty over whether Chicago captain Jack Elliott will play. The club listed suspension as the reason he missed the previous match and the data center has not included him on its list of absentees for this game, but the Associated Press expects him to miss out with an injury. If he plays, he can partner Andreas Hanche Olsen at centre-back. If he is out, a player such as Noah Allen, who has played elsewhere, may have to move into the middle. That would affect how Chicago cover for Mbokazi's absence and shape their defence on the flanks.
Chicago have won their last three meetings with Orlando, but both matches in 2025 came under a different Orlando coach and with different forward lines. The most relevant comparison is the 2-1 Chicago win away in August, when the hosts managed only six shots to Orlando's 17. Martín Ojeda was absent for Orlando, while Chicago had D'Avilla in midfield, though he is suspended for this match. The sequence of three wins matters less than what happened in that game: Chicago scored after intercepting a clearance, and Orlando equalised from Griezmann's corner. Those details offer a better guide to this match.
Both teams played their last match on October 25, Korea time. They each have an away fixture after this game, with Orlando's next opponent being fellow playoff contender Charlotte FC. The US National Weather Service forecast for kick-off is around 18°C, mostly sunny, with a 0% chance of rain. Unlike the August meeting, which was interrupted for about 90 minutes by severe weather, conditions are unlikely to disrupt either team's passing.
2. Matchup analysis
Chicago's first target should be Orlando's build-up from the back. In the August meeting, David Poreba intercepted an Orlando clearance, leading to a Puso Dithejane opener. Orlando also conceded away to Philadelphia Union in September after a pass out from the back was intercepted. Chicago, meanwhile, won the ball high and scored against Atlanta United in their last game. Orlando will face that press without Jansson, who used to start attacks with long passes, or Atuesta, who linked play in midfield. If David Brekalo and Iago are put under pressure when they have the ball, Chicago could win it back close to Orlando's penalty area and launch attacks from there.
That pressure can also create an opening for the other side. If Chicago's midfielders step forward to press and Orlando play through them, the key question will be who tracks Griezmann when he drops deep to receive the ball. A less experienced replacement is likely to fill the defensive midfield role usually occupied by D'Avilla. If Mekvabishvili pushes forward to win the ball as he did in the last game, Chicago could create more attacking chances, but Saletros and the defence will need to cover the space behind him. Griezmann could receive the ball there and either carry it forward or find Martín Ojeda. If he drops deeper to help build attacks, another forward will need to finish chances in the box.
Both teams have clear routes to goal down the flanks and from set pieces. Jonathan Bamba scored for Chicago by cutting in from the left and shooting. Balls left around the penalty area after Philip Zinckernagel's corners led to goals against Charlotte FC and in the recent Atlanta United match. Orlando may also have to change their defensive pairing on the side if Griffin Dorsey is unavailable. They can respond with Griezmann's free kicks and corners, and Martín Ojeda's crosses. In the August meeting, Brekalo headed in an equaliser from a Griezmann corner. Chicago have recently conceded from long balls behind the defence and aerial balls toward the far post, making Elliott's availability relevant to how they defend those situations.
Neither team has looked secure after taking the lead. Orlando let late equalisers in after going ahead against Toronto FC and New York City FC. Chicago brought Rogers on to add another defender after taking the lead in the August meeting, but he is injured for this match. If Orlando fall behind, interim coach Perelman can turn to the attacking substitutes he has used recently. Daryl Dike scored after coming off the bench away to Toronto FC, and Marco Pašalić has also scored as a substitute. Those options could give Orlando more chances to get back into the game, while also leaving Chicago room to attack behind the wide defenders.
The combined xG numbers from the data center's last nine league matches with available figures also help explain the matchup. Chicago have scored 16 goals from an xG of 15.09 and conceded 15 from an xGA of 11.72. Orlando have scored 23 from an xG of 17.19 and conceded 18 from an xGA of 21.42. In other words, Orlando's actual scoring and defensive results have both been better than the expected figures. Griezmann's finishing and goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau's saves have been visible in matches, but these numbers alone do not tell us whether the same efficiency will continue today. If Crépeau saves a high volume of shots, Chicago's pressing may not translate into goals.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Chicago to take the lead, Orlando to respond and both teams to score several times, with Chicago edging it. The hosts' high press directly targets an Orlando build-up missing Jansson and Atuesta. Zinckernagel's set pieces also match up with Orlando's tendency to give opponents corners and chances around the penalty area. On the other side, Chicago are without D'Avilla and Mbokazi and will need to protect the central areas Griezmann drops into, as well as defend the final aerial ball. We expect Chicago to score one more than Orlando, even if the visitors get on the scoresheet at least twice.
The market has moved toward a comfortable Chicago win, reflecting the standings, home advantage and Orlando's away record at the back. We agree on the direction of the result but expect a narrower margin. Orlando's defensive weakness on the road remains relevant, but Chicago are without D'Avilla and Rogers and have fewer ways to protect the middle and add defensive cover after going ahead. Orlando still have Griezmann's set pieces, Martín Ojeda's attacking runs and the chance of a late goal from the bench. We expect Chicago to add another goal and Orlando to pull one back.
Our prediction hinges on Chicago winning the ball in Orlando's defensive third. If Orlando play through the press and get the ball to Griezmann reliably, the result could swing the other way. If Elliott is also unavailable, Chicago would have to change both the defensive midfield role and the centre-back pairing. In that case, Orlando would have a better chance of doing more than pulling one back and could level the match.
[Final picks, by market, based on Betman listings] Full-time result: Home win. Orlando's back line, without Jansson and Atuesta, will have to deal with Chicago's press and Zinckernagel's set pieces for 90 minutes. The more Griezmann drops deep to help build attacks, the more Orlando's attacking and defensive routes are both affected. Handicap -1: Draw. Orlando still have ways to get back into the game regardless of the score, including Griezmann's set pieces, a Martín Ojeda penalty and a late goal from a substitute. Chicago must protect a lead without Rogers or D'Avilla, which makes it harder to finish with a bigger margin. A one-goal home win can go hand in hand with a high-scoring match. Over/under 3.5: Over. Both teams have lost central defenders and midfielders, Mbokazi and D'Avilla for Chicago, Jansson and Atuesta for Orlando. A draw offers little to either side, so they have reason to keep committing players forward. We expect Orlando to chase Chicago's lead and both teams to add to the score.
