Sunderland and Leeds should be decided by the central challenge before either side's first forward pass. Leeds can press high, while Sunderland can play into the space behind the advanced wide players. Udinese and Milan also have a contest between a direct second ball and a wide to central attack. In both games, the available finishing roles matter as much as territory.
Sunderland have used Xhaka and Le Fée to reach wide runners and the box, including repeated entries at Lech. Leeds can force hurried exits, but Stach, Okafor and Calvert-Lewin are doubtful after playing their latest league match, weakening the same delivery and final contact that rescued the Manchester United draw. Ballard and Danso are out for Sunderland; Brobbey's return is expected rather than a confirmed full match. I expect Sunderland to find a usable first pass often enough to keep their home route active. That's why I'm siding with Sunderland.
Milan can use Modrić's first pass, Pulisic or Hutchinson wide, and Ramos or Cissé arriving centrally. Rabiot, Moreira and Gila are absent, so Milan's earlier goals cannot simply be copied, but the remaining route has actual recent minutes. Udinese can release Davis and collect his second balls; its latest attacks, though, reached the goal too seldom, while Lecce found both corner contacts and open space against its defence. Milan's Bournemouth defeat included a dismissal and penalties, which distort the view of its normal attack. That's why I'm siding with AC Milan.
