Two matches where a makeshift defence meets an opponent built to attack exactly that weakness. Stuttgart's high press faces a Gladbach side missing both first-choice centre-backs, three central midfielders and nearly every striker. In Brest, both teams start improvised centre-back units against attacks that target the area where they are weak. One game should be decided by pressure and margin, the other by each side finding its own way through.
Stuttgart under Hoeness win by turning the opponent's build-up into chances. The goal against Atletico this week came from a turnover in Atletico's half. Gladbach are bottom with no points and have conceded at least two in every league game. Now Itakura and Leszczynski are out, Leopold, Castrop and Fleck are missing in midfield, and Kleindienst, Lidberg, Kuhn and Honorat are all unavailable up front. That leaves Machino as the only natural striker and a back three with Hashioka and Chiarodia as fill-ins. Gladbach will have the ball deep in their own half with no target to play long to.
The flow suits Stuttgart's habits. Every win this season has been by two or more, and when they go one up Hoeness keeps pushing, as against Koln, Paderborn and Slovan, with Demirovic and Undav to come off the bench. Gladbach's realistic route is Mohya running behind stand-in right-back Assignon, but their last home game produced very little after half-time. I'm backing Stuttgart to win clearly.
In Brest, the hosts play to Ajorque in the air, with crosses from Lala and Locko and plenty of set pieces. They have scored in nine of their last ten at a high volume. Nice arrive without Bombito and Mendy, so Ndayishimiye, normally a midfielder, and the young Mandza line up beside Seidu. Brest, though, have conceded in each of their last ten, and with Chardonnet and Le Guen out, Tousart moves back from midfield next to Lloris. That is the space Amoura and Wahi like to run into, especially when Brest's full-backs push up to cross.
If Nice go ahead on the break, Brest throw bodies forward and the game opens up. If Brest score first and sit, Nice get the ball late in the game against a defence that has not kept a clean sheet in ten. Each side has its own clear route to a goal, so I expect both teams to find the net.
