Two matches built on leaky defences at both ends. Anfield and Sittard both feature sides that concede chances in volume while still producing goals of their own.
Liverpool against Brighton: Liverpool have scored in nine of their last ten and give up about a goal and a half in expected terms, with only three clean sheets in ten. Brighton keep the ball, create over two expected goals a game and have scored in nine of ten, even with their attack missing several names for weeks. Both midfields are thinned, which should loosen the game. That's why I'm siding with both teams finding the net.
Sittard against Excelsior: Sittard concede around two a game with high chance quality against and are missing a defender, yet they have scored in nine of ten. Excelsior score in bunches away and have just conceded four and five, with the opponent's chance quality high in both. Sittard sit low and counter, Excelsior hold the ball, and each defence should be breached. That's why I'm siding with both teams scoring here too.
