Two Champions League home sides with the better chance numbers face opponents who have struggled on the road. Neither game looks like a mismatch on paper, but in both the home team creates more and the visitor gives more away.
Shanghai Port keep the ball, about 59 percent on average, and win more corners than their opponents. They have scored 2.4 goals a game over their last ten. Cong An Ha Noi arrive with no points from two Champions League games and five goals conceded, including 1-4 at Gamba Osaka, after a long trip from Vietnam. Port's home form is the soft spot, with three draws in five, and two of those came when their chances dried up. The central picture is still Port scoring first and finishing the job against a side that sits deep and has little to hit back with. That's why I'm siding with Shanghai Port to win.
Beijing Guoan against Jeonbuk is a tighter game. Beijing have the better home numbers, around 1.7 expected goals for against 1.2, and 2.3 goals a game recently. Jeonbuk hold the ball but give up more than they create, have no away win in five, and concede about 1.4 a game. Beijing's run has come partly against weaker domestic sides, and Jeonbuk's habit of drawing is real, so I want the draw taken out of the equation. No absences have been reported for either side, and lineups are not out. That's why I'm siding with Beijing Guoan at home, with the draw refunded.
