Two Champions League nights where the squads matter more than the table. One game has a side with a clearly thinner spine than its opponent, the other has two defences that leak chances and two attacks missing pieces, which usually still produces goals.
Shakhtar against Sporting: Shakhtar are without their goalkeeper, their main striker, their playmaker and a centre-back. Their Champions League chance numbers against strong opponents sit around one expected goal for and just over one against. Sporting have the ball and the box shots on their side: in the one clean recent row, Casa Pia away, they created far more chance quality than they allowed, and they won comfortably.
Sporting's own back line is patched up, and the Viseu home loss shows they can slip. Even so, the side that has to do the work is Sporting, controlling territory and the area in front of goal, and Shakhtar's depleted XI makes that realistic. That's why I'm siding with Sporting not to lose this one, with a draw simply returning the stake.
Manchester United against Roma: both defences concede around one and a half expected goals a game over the last ten, and every one of the last five matches for each team had a combined chance total near or well above two. United are missing both full-backs, so Roma's wide waves have room. Roma are playing with a backup goalkeeper, so United's crosses and set pieces carry real danger even with a weakened attack.
The path to a quiet 1-0 exists, since United have been scoring about once a game, but Roma alone can get to two goals against this back line. I'm on the goals side here, expecting an open game after the first goal.
