Two Champions League games in this slip, and in both of them the broken unit sits on the side the market likes more. Sporting arrive in London with a stand-in centre-back pair that leaks against teams who break quickly, and with an interim coach who had about a day to prepare. In Istanbul, Stuttgart have lost the midfielder who controls their possession. That pushes them into the counter-attacking role that just won them a game at Leverkusen, against a Galatasaray side that concedes in every European game.
Shakhtar against Sporting first. Sporting win by holding the ball, around 58% on average, and by feeding Suarez from wide low deliveries, mostly Fresneda's from the right. Suarez has four goals in this competition. The weak spot is behind that. With Debast and Nuno Santos out for weeks, Quaresma and Inacio have conceded six in five, and LASK, Viseu and Lens all got clean chances by breaking quickly while Sporting had the ball.
The key matchup is Shakhtar's wide runners, Mendoza, Alisson and Tobias on the overlap, against that patched pair and the space Sporting's attacking full-backs leave. At the other end, Suarez and the crosses meet an intact Shakhtar back four of Tobias, Bondar, Matviienko and Pedro Henrique. In two of their three group games they held opponents to about one expected goal or less. Bondar is also a real aerial threat at set pieces.
Losing Pedrinho hurts Shakhtar's creation, and I won't pretend otherwise. But he went off early at Inter, and the players who made Shakhtar's European goals are all available. Eguinaldo never played in this competition, so his absence changes nothing here. Both sides played three games in a week and the venue is neutral, so neither side has a fatigue or home edge.
I expect Shakhtar to try to keep more of the ball early, as Turan has said, and to settle into a compact block when they can't. Turan has also said that not losing matters. If the game is level past the hour, Sporting's bench will push, and that opens exactly the space Shakhtar's runners want. That's why I'm siding with Shakhtar not losing this one.
Galatasaray against Stuttgart is a goals read, not a home-margin read. Stuttgart's stand-in back three of Jaquez, Chabot and Hendriks has been starting for weeks, so nothing broke there this week. What is new is Stiller's absence, alongside Sauer. Without their first passer, Karazor and Promel play a more direct, ball-winning game, and that is the version of Stuttgart that had seven shots on target and scored four at Leverkusen with only 37% of the ball.
Galatasaray's front line is at full strength. Leao played and scored at the weekend, Bardakci's ban is domestic only, and Osimhen trained fully. They have had eight shots on target in each of their last two games, and they score from early pressure, crosses and corners. They also concede through balls in behind, rebounds and wide creation: Lille scored twice that way, and Barcelona scored three after the break.
The flow I expect is a home side pushing hard in front of a heated crowd and keeping on pressing even with a lead, as they did at Lille. That leaves room for Undav and Demirovic to break, while Osimhen and the crosses test a Stuttgart back line that conceded two headers last weekend. Each side has a live route to a goal with this week's attackers. That's why I'm siding with both of them finding the net.
