Two matchups where one side's main weapon hits the other side's weakest area. In Seoul, the league's best paint offence meets the league's worst paint defence, and the visitors have faded late in most of their games. In Beijing, both sides are rotating, but for different reasons, and the away side's long-running finishing problem doesn't go away with fresh legs. In both games the later stages should matter more than the start.
Seoul Knights win inside. Warney and Hicks are both post scorers, and SK lead the league in paint field goals. KCC concede the most points in the league, allow the most paint baskets and the second-highest two-point percentage, after losing Song Kyo-chang and Choi Jun-yong in the offseason. SK also force turnovers, with ten steals in two of their last three games, and KCC's coach has called ball security under pressure a problem.
KCC's way back is the three-point line. Sono and LG hurt SK from outside, but they took 33 and 36 threes, while KCC have been closer to the mid-20s. KCC have lost the fourth quarter in six of their eight league games, and their coach admits the bench is thin, with Heo Ung below full fitness and a backup guard recently out. SK played back-to-back on the weekend, but they still won the fourth quarter of the second game and won by 11, and they get two days of rest before this one. KCC may start well, but the gap should grow in the middle quarters and late. That's why I'm siding with Seoul Knights to win clearly.
In Beijing, Guoan come in on five straight wins and have already shown they can score without Fabio, whose fibula fracture keeps him out. They scored late from the bench at Buriram and against Qingdao, and four times between the 65th and 81st minutes at Henan. Their rotation brings in AFC-only foreign players who rested at the weekend. Jeonbuk rotate because of load and a quick trip, and their coach admits that could cost defensive organisation.
Jeonbuk keep the ball and take plenty of shots, but they scored once from 29 shots across their last two games and have no win in five away games. Expect a tight first half, with Jeonbuk holding more of the ball, then Beijing's transitions through Lin Liangming and Zhang Yuning, plus their bench, deciding it later. A draw is a real outcome, and the selection covers it. I'm with Beijing Guoan.
