Two B.League games, and in each the line looks drawn from the loudest recent numbers instead of how these teams play at this venue. Sendai win with three-point volume and almost no free throws, so their margins at home swing a lot. Yokohama's recent blowout came through a turnover mechanism that Sendai rarely use. In Tokyo, Alvark at home and Ibaraki on the road have both played controlled, moderate-scoring games, well below the scoring that Alvark's overall average suggests.
Sendai against Yokohama. Sendai take 28 to 41 threes a game at about 34 percent and rarely reach the free-throw line. Jarrett Culver has four straight 30-point games. Against normal opposition their home wins came by four, seven, nine and fifteen. Yokohama are the opposite: weak from deep, but they score through Kotsar inside, offensive rebounds and free throws, third in the league in attempts at almost 79 percent. On the road they have played slow, close games, with margins of one, nine, three and ten.
Yokohama are missing McGusty and King Kai long term, and rookie Arai sat the last two games, so Culver will score. But their thirty-one-point loss last time out came from Hokkaido's eleven steals and fast breaks. Sendai usually get five to nine steals and do not win that way. If Yokohama keep the game in the half court and keep getting to the line, Sendai's lead depends on their threes falling, and Yokohama's strong fourth quarters cut into it. That's why I'm siding with Yokohama to keep this close.
Alvark against Ibaraki. Alvark lead the league by drawing fouls, pressing and closing quarters, and their fourth-quarter defence is their stingiest. Their four B.League home games all finished between the high 150s and the mid 160s, and they scored at most 90 in them. Ibaraki under their new coach play bigger with Soares and Delany, slow the game in the half court, and scored 71, 77 and 82 on the road.
Olbrich has been out for all of Alvark's current streak, so those home numbers already reflect this roster. The big totals in Alvark's season came from away shootouts and a quadruple-overtime game. Here, the free throws Alvark draw stop the clock and set up the press, and Ibaraki's size grinds possessions down. That's why I expect a lower-scoring game and am on the under side of the total.
