Two Serie A games where the weaker side's problems sit at the back. Roma should own the ball and the box against a Cagliari team that barely creates, while Lazio arrive with the league's tightest defence against a home side that has lost its centre-backs.
Roma against Cagliari: Roma average far more shots on target and chance quality than Cagliari, who have scored one goal or none in most of their recent games and lost their last two league matches by wide margins. Roma's thinner midfield and backup goalkeeper are real, but the same absentees were already out when Roma scored two to four goals in recent games. The corner edge and late bench goals add margin. That's why I'm siding with Roma to win by a clear margin.
Sassuolo against Lazio: Sassuolo are good at home, but both confirmed centre-backs are out and they have conceded a lot lately. Lazio have let in the fewest goals in the league and have been strong away. Their goalkeeper and attack have changes, so a draw is a fair outcome, but Lazio are the side more likely to come away ahead. That's why I'm siding with Lazio, with the draw giving the stake back.
