Santos beating São Paulo while conceding far more chances is the part I cannot shake before the Flamengo match. Flamengo's recent win over Bragantino came from a very different shot profile: fewer attempts, but many from inside the box. If Santos give up territory again, the test is whether they can keep Flamengo's entries away from those closer shooting spots. And if Flamengo control the ball, they still have to protect themselves from the quick replies Santos found in that São Paulo game.
The provisional records put São Paulo at 20 shots and 1.83 xG against Santos' nine shots and 0.60 xG, yet Santos won 2–1. Flamengo's provisional Bragantino game lists 11 shots, nine inside the box, and 2.94 xG in a 2–1 win. Those are single games, so I would watch where chances come from here before turning either result into a prediction. What would tell you Santos are defending the dangerous space well?
