Two matches where the visitors' profile matters more than the table. Jeonbuk travel to Anyang as a side that controls away games without scoring many, with a trip to Beijing three days later. Shimizu go to Hiroshima to face a home side that has barely conceded all autumn, and they are missing the runner who made their counters work.
Jeonbuk away this season under the same coach: sixteen games, four wins, eight draws, sixteen goals. They hold the ball but often fail to turn it into a win. At Daejeon they led at half-time and lost to goals in the second half. Their coach has spoken about managing his players' condition after continental trips, and Beijing is next.
Anyang have leaked at home all season, but after a camp spent only on defending they kept two clean sheets. That is a short run, so I don't lean on it too much. Jeonbuk's danger is real: Tiago is back and Lee Young-jae's set pieces could find a young Anyang centre-back pair. Still, the most likely shape is tight and level for a long time, and late is where Jeonbuk have dropped points. That's why I'm siding with Anyang not to lose.
At home Sanfrecce keep the ball and give almost nothing away: six conceded in nine home games, and one in the last four. Haller is suspended, so they will rely on combinations and runs rather than a target man, which suits the way Suzuki, Kato and Ayukawa have been scoring.
Shimizu lose Matsuzaki to suspension, their main wide runner and recent scorer, so their counter route shrinks. Their set pieces need corners, and Sanfrecce have given up very few. Against good possession sides Shimizu have cracked late: two late goals against Gamba, and twenty-five shots and four second-half goals conceded to Machida. Once Sanfrecce score first, Shimizu have to come out and the substitutes get space. I'm backing Sanfrecce to win clearly, with a one-goal win returning the stake.
